News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Letter] SA is not getting the basics of reliable trade infrastructure right

This means the country's fiscus will be more fragile in future.

[News] Stop trying to make the NHI happen - fix what we've got: expert

South African think tank, the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) hosted a discussion this week about the viability of the government’s National Health Insurance scheme, which it says is moving full steam ahead, despite concerns raised by stakeholders in the private and public healthcare space.

[Opinion] Redistributionism or Growth?

Basic Income Grant (BIG) – added to the increasing number of other forms of welfare – represents a major risk to South Africa’s fiscal responsibility and growth prospects.

[Letter] Nationalising the Sarb won’t solve unemployment, energy insecurity

Simply discussing the possibility of nationalisation sends a signal to SA and international companies and investors that the institution may lose all credibility

[Opinion] Heightened risk of social unrest in second half of 2022

In the context of rising food and fuel prices, an official unemployment rate of 34%, and growth-depressing factors such as blockades of the N3 and persistent rolling blackouts, South Africa faces the prospect of more social unrest and instability over coming months.

[Letter] Wiser to ignore government

Inflation is likely to remain high given that there is little prospect that substantive structural reforms in both the policy and administered price areas will be implemented any time soon (“SA consumers at ‘tipping point’ as food inflation soars, says NielsenIQ”, July 27).

[Opinion] Businesses will not tolerate municipal decay forever

How can businesses assist in South Africa’s economic recovery when a growing number of the country’s municipalities are unable to perform their most basic functions?

[Letter] State capture a feature of ANC ideology

There may be overtures to accountability and structural reforms, but for as long as the ANC adheres to the requirements and edicts of the NDR the incentives and pressures for corruption will persist.

[Opinion] Lower growth on the horizon

Within the context of a tightening global business environment, foreign investment in countries such as South Africa may decline, or head towards more friendly climates. Higher interest rates also mean tighter credit, and so businesses that want to expand may be faced with higher risk and credit costs.

[Letter] Incrementally or not, NHI is misguided

Monopolising the management of healthcare — even if it is done only incrementally over a long period — will add yet more layers of bureaucracy and control over doctors and nurses, and concentrate resources in the hands of the state. In so doing it will add incentives for cronyism and corruption.

[Audio] The state of the nation and policy reform – ChaiFM

[News] Transnet falls short as opportunity knocks

Considering the consistently below-average performance of the country’s ports, it comes as no surprise that the Port of Maputo is emerging as an alternative to its nearest South African competitors, a point confirmed by Chris Hattingh, senior policy analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis.

[Video] Conditions at local ports costing Transnet and the economy

The Centre for Risk Analysis says conditions at local ports are costing Transnet and the economy billions, due to years of neglect.

[Opinion] SA decline on Human Development Index continues

Despite South Africa’s continuous improvement in its Human Development Index value for nearly three decades, the country’s overall rank has been declining over the past three years.

[Opinion] Commitment to misguided policies limits SA’s growth

South Africa’s recent attempts at structural reform tinker at the margins and do little to resolve barriers to investment and employment, especially regarding labour markets.

[Opinion] Policy barriers hobble SA’s trade potential

The latest Macro Review – Siege Economy: SA Trade – published by the Centre For Risk Analysis, looks at the latest trends regarding South Africa’s trade with the world. Also featured is an analysis of key policy risks facing businesses and the consequences of such risks, which are most likely to be felt by low- to middle-income consumers.

[Opinion] SA ports rank low on 2021 CPPI

South Africa’s port facilities have been ranked near the bottom of the 2021 Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), released by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

[News] South Africa has no choice but to pivot to renewables: De Ruyter

Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has said South Africa has no choice but to shift from coal to renewable energy as it is becoming impossible to secure funding for new coal projects.

[News] De Ruyter slams 100MW cap on private power generation

Government last year lifted the cap on private power generation from 1MW to 100MW, below which companies don’t need to be licensed by energy regulator Nersa. Now Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has questioned why there’s a cap at all.

[Opinion] Pupils’ poor performance on critical subjects contributes to joblessness, says research centre

13 May 2022 - SA is increasingly becoming an economy driven by the tertiary sector, but pupils’ poor performance in critical subjects is hindering them from entering the job market.

[Opinion] SA’s ‘two great failures’ contributing to the downward spiralling of the economy

13 May 2022 - CRA senior economic analyst Bheki Mahlobo said the ANC administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa continued to perform poorly.

[Video] Effects of poor service delivery

Effective and reliable service delivery remains one of the biggest challenges in South Africa. Municipalities across the country are in crisis with broken infrastructure. The Centre for Risk Analysis launched the 2022 edition of the Socio-Economic Survey of South Africa. David Ansara, the Chief Operating Officer of the Centre For Risk Analysis, discussed this with eNCA's Masego Rahlaga.

[Opinion] Joblessness and reliance on grants - research centre's analysis paints grim picture of struggling SA

12 May 2022 - The unemployment rate has led many South Africans to rely on social grants, says senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) Bheki Mahlobo.

[News] The budgets don’t fit like they used to – Food prices hike in SA and even wine isn’t safe

In late February, economist and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis Bheki Mahlobo highlighted three vulnerable sectors subject to change, including fuel, food and energy.

[Opinion] Where is the recovery?

In reality, South Africa has not experienced a major recovery and not made much progress in instituting the reforms that would make this possible.

[Opinion] SA no longer has a free economy

South Africa continues to slide down rankings of economic freedom, with the country’s overall score now at a record low.

[News] Russia-Ukraine conflict could see steep fuel and food prices increases, SA economists warn

Economist, and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, Bheki Mahlobo said three key factors to track are energy prices, global supply chain pressures, and food prices.

[Opinion] What South Africa could learn from California

There are few similarities between the US state of California and South Africa, but one thing these territories have in common is their hostility to business.

[Opinion] Declining living standards: Pandemic or Policy?

Covid-19 may have had a considerable impact on livelihoods and income levels in South Africa, but it is not the sole culprit for the decline in living standards.

[Podcast] Mediocre Leadership

Gareth and Phumi are joined by Assistant Editor for Breaking News at News24, Sheldon Morais, and the new CEO of the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), John Endres. They have a discussion about the State Capture report, the global inflation and interest rate environment, and Cyril Ramphosa being a mediocre president.