News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] Commitment to misguided policies limits SA’s growth

South Africa’s recent attempts at structural reform tinker at the margins and do little to resolve barriers to investment and employment, especially regarding labour markets.

[Opinion] Policy barriers hobble SA’s trade potential

The latest Macro Review – Siege Economy: SA Trade – published by the Centre For Risk Analysis, looks at the latest trends regarding South Africa’s trade with the world. Also featured is an analysis of key policy risks facing businesses and the consequences of such risks, which are most likely to be felt by low- to middle-income consumers.

[Opinion] SA ports rank low on 2021 CPPI

South Africa’s port facilities have been ranked near the bottom of the 2021 Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), released by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

[News] South Africa has no choice but to pivot to renewables: De Ruyter

Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has said South Africa has no choice but to shift from coal to renewable energy as it is becoming impossible to secure funding for new coal projects.

[News] De Ruyter slams 100MW cap on private power generation

Government last year lifted the cap on private power generation from 1MW to 100MW, below which companies don’t need to be licensed by energy regulator Nersa. Now Eskom CEO André de Ruyter has questioned why there’s a cap at all.

[Opinion] Pupils’ poor performance on critical subjects contributes to joblessness, says research centre

13 May 2022 - SA is increasingly becoming an economy driven by the tertiary sector, but pupils’ poor performance in critical subjects is hindering them from entering the job market.

[Opinion] SA’s ‘two great failures’ contributing to the downward spiralling of the economy

13 May 2022 - CRA senior economic analyst Bheki Mahlobo said the ANC administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa continued to perform poorly.

[Video] Effects of poor service delivery

Effective and reliable service delivery remains one of the biggest challenges in South Africa. Municipalities across the country are in crisis with broken infrastructure. The Centre for Risk Analysis launched the 2022 edition of the Socio-Economic Survey of South Africa. David Ansara, the Chief Operating Officer of the Centre For Risk Analysis, discussed this with eNCA's Masego Rahlaga.

[Opinion] Joblessness and reliance on grants - research centre's analysis paints grim picture of struggling SA

12 May 2022 - The unemployment rate has led many South Africans to rely on social grants, says senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) Bheki Mahlobo.

[News] The budgets don’t fit like they used to – Food prices hike in SA and even wine isn’t safe

In late February, economist and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis Bheki Mahlobo highlighted three vulnerable sectors subject to change, including fuel, food and energy.

[Opinion] Where is the recovery?

In reality, South Africa has not experienced a major recovery and not made much progress in instituting the reforms that would make this possible.

[Opinion] SA no longer has a free economy

South Africa continues to slide down rankings of economic freedom, with the country’s overall score now at a record low.

[News] Russia-Ukraine conflict could see steep fuel and food prices increases, SA economists warn

Economist, and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, Bheki Mahlobo said three key factors to track are energy prices, global supply chain pressures, and food prices.

[Opinion] What South Africa could learn from California

There are few similarities between the US state of California and South Africa, but one thing these territories have in common is their hostility to business.

[Opinion] Declining living standards: Pandemic or Policy?

Covid-19 may have had a considerable impact on livelihoods and income levels in South Africa, but it is not the sole culprit for the decline in living standards.

[Podcast] Mediocre Leadership

Gareth and Phumi are joined by Assistant Editor for Breaking News at News24, Sheldon Morais, and the new CEO of the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), John Endres. They have a discussion about the State Capture report, the global inflation and interest rate environment, and Cyril Ramphosa being a mediocre president.

[News] SA ‘at risk of becoming a failed state’ – due to these FIVE factors

Yet another set of experts have flagged our current political situation – and the threat of South Africa becoming a failed state looms large.

[News] Economists decry interest rate increase: 'It’s always the poor who bear the brunt'

Economists and business warned that the latest increase by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) would have dire consequences for consumers who were already struggling with high petrol, electricity and grocery prices..

[Opinion] Sweeping school drop-out rates under the rug

Although the matric results of 2021 show that the overwhelming majority of learners have passed, the figures conceal a low pupil retention rate.

[News] Newly-matriculated class face employment woes for the year ahead

Economist, and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, Bheki Mahlobo, said that unfortunately the country's educational system did not properly equip many young South Africans with the skills needed to be absorbed in the labour market.

[Opinion] Risks – and opportunities – for SA in 2022

22 January 2022 - What does 2022 hold for South Africa? We continue to consider the country to be in an exceptionally fragile state both politically and economically.

[Opinion] Education in South Africa: No bang for our buck

16 January 2022 - “When it comes to questions around SA’s education system, it is not a matter of availability of money and how much is spent. Rather, it is about the management and proper allocation of available resources.”

[Opinion] ANC’s hegemony is over: a new era has begun

Coalition politics are set to become the norm and the share of the vote of the African National Congress (ANC) in the 2024 national and provincial elections will remain below 50%.

[Opinion] Numsa strike unjustified as rise in steel price will hit manufacturers

Not all enterprises are able to pass the increases on to consumers.

[Opinion] Upcoming local elections and democracy in South Africa

17 September 2021 - The long list of problems in South Africa, including poverty, corruption and inequality, may hold the voters back from participating in the upcoming elections.

[Audio] Why there is no necessary reform

David Ansara, Chief Operating Officer of the CRA, was interviewed by Sara Gon on Chai FM about the reasons for the lack of policy reform in South Africa.

[Podcast] Risk and having a Plan B

My guest, David Ansara from the "Solutions with David Ansara" podcast, is the Chief Operating Office of the Centre for Risk Analysis.

[News] ‘Pink Vote’ an untapped market for SA political parties

“Gerbrandt van Heerden, the author of The SA Pink Vote report, said if political parties continued to ignore the LGBTQ voting bloc during elections, they risked missing out on an active, dynamic and electorally valuable market.”

[Opinion] The Economics Underpinning South Africa’s Riots

It has been labelled as South Africa’s worst episode of civil unrest since the days of apartheid. The rioting that occurred following the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court on July 7—specifically, for failing to show up for an official inquiry into his alleged corruption during his nine-year presidency—has been among the darkest chapters in the country’s recent history.

[Opinion] Foreign workers contribute to South Africa’s economy

Beyond the most recent attacks on South African trucks in the violence and looting along key routes between KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng is a longer story of an industry embattled by criminality, and of a transport sector that has long been prone to xenophobic violence.