Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | An emerging risk for the DA

12 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we assess an emerging risk for the Democratic Alliance.

Publication description

We discuss deputy president Paul Mashatile’s positioning ahead of the 2027 ANC elective conference, before reviewing Operational Vulindlela Phase II, announced last week.

We turn to the new spending plans for Johannesburg, announced by mayor Dada Morero, and close with an update on the South Africa/United States diplomatic and trade relationship.

Risk Alert | Third time lucky for the budget?

5 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at South Africa’s third proposed budget in 2025, and the serious risk that alleged MTN dealings in Iran pose to SA-US relations.

Publication description

We look at how elections in Canada and Australia have been impacted by US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and foreign policy.

We close with an analysis of Mr Trump’s first 100 days in office, citing the significant risks on the horizon for his policy reform programme.

Risk Alert | Harsher race laws in South Africa

22 April 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an update on harsher race laws in South Africa, likely to negatively impact employment in both the public and private sectors.

Publication description

The economic growth implications of the SARB’s latest monetary policy review are assessed and, in the US, Donald Trump takes pot shots at Fed chair Jerome Powell.

We close with an update on China’s economic growth outlook.

Risk Alert | DA edges ANC in latest poll

14 April 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with our latest polling results, which find higher support for the DA than the ANC.

Publication description

We analyse the status of the GNU in public perception and explore the state of the ANC.

Next, we look at the latest policy uncertainty index for South Africa before closing with the latest developments on the Trump trade rollercoaster.

Risk Alert | GNU teeters on the brink

7 April 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the GNU teetering on the brink of collapse.

Publication description

Next, we look at new polling data from the Brenthurst Foundation.

Heightened US pressure on South Africa follows. Thereafter we turn to US President Trump’s attempt at resetting global trade.

We close with a look at the impact of higher US tariffs on SA.

Risk Alert | GNU Budget Battle: Make or Break

31 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an update on the battle over the budget. We explore the opportunity this represents for the EFF and the quandary in which it places the ANC.

Publication description

We then turn to the sorry state of the South African Air Force.

We continue with an assessment of the Trump administration’s tariff threats to SA’s automotive industry before closing with a comment on its nomination for ambassador to South Africa.