Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The end of the sugar high

01 September 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the depletion of the initial optimism after the formation of the GNU.

Publication Description

We assess the state of South Africa’s manufacturing sector before reviewing developments in key export markets.

From there we turn to the latest development in the legal battle over the Trump tariffs before highlighting the potential impact of US sanctions on South Africa’s participation in global payments systems.

Risk Alert | ANC in distress

25 August 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with warning indicators flashing in the ANC cockpit.

Publication Description

New polling indicates the DA is ascendant in the Gauteng metros. We then examine the recent attempted hijacking of a DA MP, and the continued increase of political violence in the country.

Thereafter, we look at Transnet opening its door to the private sector, and close with Sakeliga’s win against “third wave BEE”.

Risk Alert | Who’s in charge of SA’s defence force?

18 August 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with General Rudzani Maphwanya’s Iran trip, comments, and implications thereof for the South African Presidency.

Publication Description

We review Pretoria’s plan to launch a fresh trade deal attempt with Washington, as well as the latest unemployment data. 

Thereafter, we look at the National Dialogue, off to an inauspicious start, and close with the latest on US inflation and economic data.

Risk Alert | The ANC won’t budge

11 August 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the ANC’s latest National Executive Committee meeting.

Publication Description

We then turn to the US view on South Africa, as reported from Washington, DC by Chris Hattingh.

Next, we review the new US Commercial Diplomacy Strategy and the opportunities it offers South Africa.

From there, we look at South Africa’s response to the Trump tariffs that kicked in on 7 August and close by assessing the chances that US courts could overturn those tariffs.

Risk Alert | A new trade reality

04 August 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an overview of the current Trump tariffs and assess South Africa’s response.

Publication description

We discuss Taiwan’s possible ban on semiconductor exports to South Africa, before turning to a new survey of South African SMEs that shows small companies under a great deal of stress.  

We close with an outlook on economic growth in South Africa and the United States.

Risk Alert | GNU passes budget stress test

28 July 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a recap of two DA wins in the budget process, before analysing the political implications of the process.

Publication Description

We discuss the growing pressure the uMkhonto weSizwe Party is applying on President Cyril Ramaphosa. 

From there, we move to some economic risks for South Africa highlighted by Lesetja Kganyago, the Reserve Bank governor, before closing with a look at SA-US relations and the trade outlook.