Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | CR pulls the tiger’s tail

3 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Ramaphosa’s likely short-lived hopes of making a deal with the Trump administration.

Publication description

South Africa’s G20 presidency risks papering over the country’s fundamental growth issues. Thereafter we unpack the latest shifts within the GNU and look at new polling results from the Social Research Foundation.

We close with the results of the German elections and the challenges facing Europe’s biggest economy.

Risk Alert | Budget hits a brick wall

24 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the postponed budget speech and South Africa’s narrow tax base.

Publication description

We analyse the lack of imagination keeping the country in a low-growth trap. We then turn to ongoing tension between failing state services and private solutions.

We close with a look at rejigged ANC provincial structures, as well as details regarding upcoming race quotas.

Risk Alert | Trouble in the house of MK

17 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with leadership, management, and money troubles afflicting the uMkhonto weSizwe Party.

Publication description

We examine contradictory statements from government regarding the NHI. Thereafter we analyse the options available to the delegations and envoys that President Ramaphosa will send to Washington.

We close with a look at ongoing water service delivery breakdowns in Johannesburg.

Risk Alert | Washington plays hardball

10 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin by looking at the harsh Washington gaze focused on South Africa.

Publication description

We assess whether the South African government can adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Thereafter, uMkhonto weSizwe Party’s money troubles come to the fore.

We close with an analysis of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 2025 State of the Nation Address.

Risk Alert | Let the tariff wars begin

3 February 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with US President Donald Trump’s opening tariffs salvo.

Publication description

We examine whether US sanctions could be imposed on some South African political leaders and officials. Thereafter we unpack the IMF’s latest country update for South Africa along with the country’s growth prospects.

We close with a look at the SANDF’s unfolding military disaster in the DRC.

Risk Alert | Ramaphosa drops the EWC bomb

27 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the Expropriation Act, which President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law last Thursday.

Publication description

We discuss the Transformation Fund mooted by the minister of trade, industry and competition, Parks Tau, and review the fast-evolving relationship between the ANC and its partners in the Government of National Unity.

We close with a look at the United States and the flurry of executive orders signed by Donald Trump as he takes control of government.