Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | GNU teeters on the brink

In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the GNU teetering on the brink of collapse.

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Next, we look at new polling data from the Brenthurst Foundation.
 
Heightened US pressure on South Africa follows. Thereafter we turn to US President Trump’s attempt at resetting global trade.
 
We close with a look at the impact of higher US tariffs on SA.

Risk Alert | GNU Budget Battle: Make or Break

31 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with an update on the battle over the budget. We explore the opportunity this represents for the EFF and the quandary in which it places the ANC.

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We then turn to the sorry state of the South African Air Force.
 
We continue with an assessment of the Trump administration’s tariff threats to SA’s automotive industry before closing with a comment on its nomination for ambassador to South Africa.

Risk Alert | SA backs down, marginally

24 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a marginal shift in SA’s stance towards the US, with research funding under ongoing strain.

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We turn to Europe, where Germany is undertaking a generational shift in defence spending. Thereafter we look at a gloomy US growth outlook.

We close with an analysis of the latest interest rates moves in both SA and the US.

Risk Alert | ANC seeks tax hike to feed spending habit

17 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a quick overview of the budget.

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We then cast a spotlight on the state of manufacturing in SA and on recent comments by the head of VW in South Africa. 

We close with a look at the escalation in diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the United States and assess the implications for the Government of National Unity.

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Risk Alert | No GNU magic in GDP numbers

10 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at South Africa’s disappointing 2024 GDP numbers, highlighting a recent World Bank report urging the government to liberalise the economy.

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We turn to the sorry state of Gauteng, which has been noticed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, as Johannesburg gears up to host the G20 Summit in November. 
 
We close with a look at the latest developments in Donald Trump’s tariff wars. 

Risk Alert | CR pulls the tiger’s tail

3 March 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Ramaphosa’s likely short-lived hopes of making a deal with the Trump administration.

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South Africa’s G20 presidency risks papering over the country’s fundamental growth issues. Thereafter we unpack the latest shifts within the GNU and look at new polling results from the Social Research Foundation.
 
We close with the results of the German elections and the challenges facing Europe’s biggest economy.