Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | 0.1% growth — is that all?

09 June 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the latest GDP growth and fixed investment numbers released by Stats SA last week.

Publication description

We discuss a new draft mining law that has been harshly criticised by industry experts, before turning to the latest business confidence readings.  

We then assess the state of South Africa’s power grid, and close with the latest news from the uMkhonto weSizwe Party.

Risk Alert | As the GNU turns one, where’s the growth?

02 June 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a review of the GNU’s performance after its first year in office.

Publication description

We assess the factors affecting its prospects of survival and then move on to the Auditor-General’s findings on South Africa’s municipalities.
 
We cover risks to South Africa’s sea and air transport before closing with a look at the latest developments on the Trump tariffs.

Risk Alert | SA’s reputation takes a knock

26 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Ramaphosa’s meeting with President Trump in Washington, DC.

Publication description

From there, we move to whether Starlink might soon be available in South Africa, before analysing the third national budget of 2025.  

We then review Transnet’s ongoing debt troubles, before closing with a look at rising national debt concerns in the United States.

Risk Alert | Into the lion’s den

19 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a preview of President Ramaphosa’s scheduled meeting with US President Trump.

Publication description

We assess the latest tariff developments and their implications for South Africa. 

From there we move to the first-quarter unemployment statistics and some new polling data which shows that many ANC voters do not support ANC policies. 

Then we cover a proposal for stricter race requirements in the transport sector before concluding with a review of some mixed messaging on the Expropriation Act.

Risk Alert | An emerging risk for the DA

12 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we assess an emerging risk for the Democratic Alliance.

Publication description

We discuss deputy president Paul Mashatile’s positioning ahead of the 2027 ANC elective conference, before reviewing Operational Vulindlela Phase II, announced last week.
 
We turn to the new spending plans for Johannesburg, announced by mayor Dada Morero, and close with an update on the South Africa/United States diplomatic and trade relationship.

Risk Alert | Third time lucky for the budget?

5 May 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at South Africa’s third proposed budget in 2025, and the serious risk that alleged MTN dealings in Iran pose to SA-US relations.

Publication description

We look at how elections in Canada and Australia have been impacted by US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and foreign policy.
 
We close with an analysis of Mr Trump’s first 100 days in office, citing the significant risks on the horizon for his policy reform programme.