Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Washington signals: peril ahead

21 July 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the possible next phase in the ongoing deterioration of SA-US relations.

Publication description

As the ANC feels the pressure, the party risks spinning out of control. Thereafter, we examine the probability of a coup taking place in South Africa. 

From there, we look at the storm clouds gathering over global trade, and close with inflation ticking upward in the United States.

Risk Alert | The police at war with itself

14 July 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we cast an eye on the growing conflict in the top echelons of the police service.

Publication description

We delve into the ANC’s 2024 annual report before turning to South Africa’s lacklustre economic growth. 

From there, we assess Operation Vulindlela’s reform prospects and close with an update on the Trump administration’s latest tariff moves. 

Risk Alert | The president and the illusion of leadership

07 July 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s vexed response to the DA’s withdrawal from the National Dialogue.

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Risk Alert | The GNU holds — just

30 June 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the latest tremor to rock the GNU. Next, President Cyril Ramaphosa rhetorically floats the possibility of BEE changes.

Publication Description

We discuss Joburg mayor Dada Morero’s survival of a motion of no confidence.

We then look at information from an “Afrikaner delegation’s” visit to Washington, DC, before closing with the findings of a 900-strong consumers, businesses and insurance brokers Santam survey.

Risk Alert | ANC bounces back, EFF crashes

23 June 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the latest polling numbers from the Social Research Foundation, which show the ANC, DA and MKP strengthening and the EFF weakening.

Publication description

We discuss Floyd Shivambu’s exit from Jacob Zuma’s MKP before turning to a multi-billion Rand lawsuit being brought against the state by Toyota South Africa’s insurance company.


We then move to new data on the state of South African manufacturing, before closing with a look at the implications of the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Risk Alert | The ANC’s squib game

17 June 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with President Ramaphosa’s National Dialogue announcement; its purpose, and whether it will fix what ails South Africa.

Publication description

We analyse political parties’ moves towards the 2026 local government elections. Thereafter, we highlight South Africa’s greylist-exit progress.

We then look at escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, and close with China’s attempt to take advantage of the end of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act.