Strategic Intelligence Report
The Strategic Intelligence Report combines first-hand political information with up-to-date statistics in order to provide an analysis on the macro socio-political and economic environment of South Africa. It also analyses global events and their impact on the country . Editions feature the CRA’s scenario planning methodology demonstrating how the future of the country may evolve over time.
The 2024 US Election
In less than a week, the United States (US) will have a new president, and polling suggests a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Publication description
This report unpacks the 2024 US presidential election, focusing on:
- core issues driving the election
- the candidates and their policies
- the reliability of polling
- the likelihood of instability in the aftermath
- who is most likely to win
Decoding India
India remains poorly understood by many political commentators and business leaders despite its significant impact on the global economy. This report serves as a basic introduction to the Indian political sphere.
Publication description
The report looks at the:
- Structure of government
- Scheduled tribes and casts
- Judiciary and media space
- Electoral history and the current political situation
- Ongoing 2024 election
South Africa’s trade infrastructure and policy space in 2024
A new report from the Centre for Risk Analysis unpacks the current state of physical trade infrastructure in South Africa.
Publication description
The report looks at:
- State of rail, ports, and electricity infrastructure
- Trade policy and legislation
- Crime and law enforcement
- South Africa's lack of economic complexity
- Tensions with established trade partners
A New Political Landscape
This edition unpacks the changing political landscape in South Africa in the run up to the 2024 National and Provincial Elections.
Publication description
The report looks at:
- Voter apathy and the ANC’s eroding support
- Opposition and coalition politics
- The uMkhonto weSizwe factor
- CRA polling
- A receding state
World War Pacific
31 January 2024 - This edition examines the likelihood of a military conflict over Taiwan between China and the United States.
Publication description
The report looks at:
- Taiwan's strategic importance to China and the United States
- The prospect of a full-scale war over Taiwan
- The risks to the global economy, should war break out
Business Beleaguered
05 December 2023 - This edition unpacks South Africa's hostile business environment.
Publication description
The report looks at:
- Enterprises by size and industry
- Energy supply constraints and port inefficiencies
- Business confidence indicators
- The role of the state — shifting from 'developmental' to 'detrimental'