Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | A turbulent peace mission

19 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we unpack an extraordinary couple of days in South African international relations, and the possible implications for the Ramaphosa administration.

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We also discuss the possible consequences of a letter penned by a bipartisan group of United States congressmen on South Africa’s hosting of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act Forum.

We close with an analysis of recent legislative moves by the African National Congress, within the wider context of the 2024 general election, and an update on the latest inflation and interest rate data in the United States.

Risk Alert | SA economy surprises to the upside

12 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the surprising Q1 2023 GDP growth figures, and the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of the South African economy, against the backdrop of declining business confidence.

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We also discuss the latest initiative aimed at getting the business sector to assist in addressing some of South Africa’s most pressing problems.

We close with a look at global supply chain pressures and the inflation outlook.

Risk Alert | SA’s ‘unclean’ municipalities

05 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we analyse a warning from the South African Reserve Bank that, because of its stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, South Africa could face secondary sanctions in the future.

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We also look at the Auditor General’s latest municipalities audit report, with special focus on recent comments aimed at mining corporates by the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe.

We close with a scrutiny of the latest crime statistics.

Risk Alert | Government infrastructure failures threaten food security

29 May 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the intersection of collapsing state services in electricity, water, and transport, and how South Africa’s major poultry producer — Astral Foods — is battling these various challenges.

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We also review the latest data on inflation and interest rates, before turning to the continuing challenges in the healthcare sector.

We close with a look at the implications of South Africa’s rapidly changing reputation in the international media.

Risk Alert | The harshest winter

22 May 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we unpack what South Africans can expect regarding the intensity of loadshedding, and some of the possible negative effects of the amended Employment Equity Act.

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We also share an update on South Africa’s economic outlook, along with the continued decline in business confidence in the government.

We then close with a look at the rising debt burden that various emerging market countries are being forced to grapple with.

Risk Alert | SA’s rising risk premium

15 May 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the state of South Africa’s mining sector.

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We also turn to the new records being set in South Africa’s loadshedding saga, and news that Germany is planning to introduce mildly similar measures from next year.

We then close with a look at Turkey’s election.