Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Coalition blues

02 May 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest political developments in Gauteng and the infrastructure problems in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro.

Publication description

We then discuss the latest gaffe from the Ramaphosa administration and its implications for the South Africa-United States trade relationship.

We close with an overview of the volatile situation in Sudan.

Risk Alert | The embattled consumer

24 April 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we examine the impact of inflation and interest rates on the South African consumer.

Publication description

We turn to the growing frustration with the government emanating from South Africa’s boardrooms, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ongoing vacillation on ministerial powers and responsibilities.

We close with a look at the global implications of South Africa’s stance on Russia, as well as recent European developments in the area of nuclear power generation.

Risk Alert | Highway to hell

17 April 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we analyse reports of a possible national shutdown by truck drivers planned for 30 April, before turning to South Africa’s latest manufacturing data.

Publication description

We then examine the possible implication of the signing into law of the Employment Equity Amendment Act, as well as takeaways from the latest South African Investment Conference.

We close with a brief look at the latest global growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund.

Risk Alert | Long dark winter ahead

11 April 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we analyse current Eskom data and provide an electricity outlook for the year ahead.

Publication description

We then turn to the latest tax statistics from the South African Revenue Service, before highlighting the growing problem of horse vaccine and snake antivenom shortages.

We close with a brief look at the latest economic indicators out of the United States.

Risk Alert | Mbeki blasts ANC comrades

04 April 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the scathing letter from former President Thabo Mbeki to the leadership and Members of Parliament of the African National Congress.

Publication description

We also note the rising levels of unease in South Africa, as measured by the Policy Uncertainty Index, and the latest surprisingly large interest rate hike by the South African Reserve Bank.

We close with an analysis of the most recent foreign policy moves by China, as well as the latest developments in Israel.

Risk Alert | Whose state is it anyway?

27 March 2023 - In this week’s exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with an assessment of the broader significance of the alleged assassination of Cloete Murray.

Publication description

We also examine the latest revisions to South Africa’s expected GDP growth rate for 2023, and the impact of the arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin on South African foreign policy.

We close with a review of the latest interest rate changes by selected central banks, in the context of some shaky financial institutions.