Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Deficit days

04 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the rapid deterioration in public finances, and what it means for expensive new government projects such as the National Health Insurance.

Publication description

The state of Transnet comes into focus, including a surprising but welcome comment on cadre deployment from the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana.

We close with a note on the latest inflation figures, as well as a story about fed-up ratepayers in the Westville area of the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality.

Risk Alert | Inflation ticks lower

28 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest inflation data, and the possible negative reputational effects of the findings in the South African Reserve Bank’s Phala Phala report.

Publication description

We reiterate the weak state of the South African National Defence Force, and the implications — on South Africa’s risk premium — of the rising cost of government bonds.

We close with an analysis of the current loadshedding status, as well as the prospects for South Africa in a bigger BRICS bloc.

Risk Alert | Moonshot slingshot

21 August 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the pre-election agreement signed by seven opposition parties in a bid to unseat the African National Congress (ANC) in 2024, and the likely future of coalitions in the country.

Publication description

The government’s apparent scuppering of reform in key areas of the South African economy is also highlighted, including the impact of administrative and cost burdens on investment.

We close with a look at what China’s economic headwinds and the upcoming polls in Zimbabwe mean for South Africa.

Risk Alert | Rule of law? Zuma walks, taxis fold

14 Aug 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with an analysis of the recent taxi strike in Cape Town and the release of former president Jacob Zuma.

Publication description

Next, we examine renewed talks of a possible grand coalition between the ANC and DA.

Thereafter, we draw attention to a proposal aimed at imposing race-based procurement rules on, amongst others, retirement homes and sectional title housing complexes.

In our penultimate section, new data from Nedbank illustrate the pressure on South Africa’s middle class.

We conclude with an analysis of the state of mining, and how a struggling Chinese economy will impact South Africa.

Risk Alert | Global Risk-Off Sentiment Becoming Entrenched

7 Aug 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a look at South Africa's shifting international trade numbers before turning to some observations on South Africa's business conditions.

Publication description

We continue with the downgrade of the United States sovereign credit rating before closing with an update on the turmoil in West Africa and the coup of Niger.

Risk Alert | Business to the rescue?

31 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the latest pledge by chief executives of big business to help solve South Africa’s economic woes, questioning whether partnerships with the state are viable.

Publication description

We also assess the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), as well as the steep decline of the country’s manufacturing industry.

We close by highlighting the diminishing trust in the government, and the global trends relating to interest rate hikes.