Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Eskom: out in the cold

17 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a look at Eskom’s latest troubles, and the recent spate of truck attacks on South Africa’s major freeways.

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We then highlight former president Jacob Zuma’s legal troubles, as well as concerns relating to disruptions at the Port of Richard’s Bay.

We close with an assessment of ‘opposition coalition’ developments in KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the latest apparent tensions in the top structures of the African National Congress.

Risk Alert | Visa holdups

11 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight a stark warning from a key trading partner on South Africa’s work visa processes, and the pressures afflicting the country’s food producers.

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We then unpack the country’s latest unemployment data, as well as the implications of rising policy uncertainty.

We close with an assessment of the Reserve Bank’s limitations in arresting inflation, and the precarious financial position of the South African Broadcasting Corporation.

Risk Alert | The Left begins to fret

3 July 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest critical commentary — from an unexpected quarter — on political developments in South Africa.

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We then comment on more business frustration with the government, and the implications should South Africans seek greener pastures, as well as the pressures on the South African consumer.

We close with a view on overseas developments in France and China.

Risk Alert | A welcome reprieve

26 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we take a deep dive into the latest loadshedding data, and share an updated electricity outlook for the next few years.

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We then turn to a range of indicators to make sense of the state of the economy.

We close with an analysis of the latest inflation data for South Africa and a selection of foreign countries.

Risk Alert | A turbulent peace mission

19 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we unpack an extraordinary couple of days in South African international relations, and the possible implications for the Ramaphosa administration.

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We also discuss the possible consequences of a letter penned by a bipartisan group of United States congressmen on South Africa’s hosting of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act Forum.

We close with an analysis of recent legislative moves by the African National Congress, within the wider context of the 2024 general election, and an update on the latest inflation and interest rate data in the United States.

Risk Alert | SA economy surprises to the upside

12 June 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the surprising Q1 2023 GDP growth figures, and the International Monetary Fund’s assessment of the South African economy, against the backdrop of declining business confidence.

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We also discuss the latest initiative aimed at getting the business sector to assist in addressing some of South Africa’s most pressing problems.

We close with a look at global supply chain pressures and the inflation outlook.