Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The ANC's magical money tree

22 January 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the ANC’s apparently successful attempt to resolve its financial woes in time for this year’s national and provincial polls.

Publication description

A freight train collision on the Richards Bay coal line is assessed, highlighting the implications for South Africa’s infrastructural and economic integrity.

We close with a note on private actors possibly holding government entities accountable through the courts, as well as the challenges besetting China’s economy.

Risk Alert | Operation ‘Save the ANC’

08 January 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess the latest developments within the governing African National Congress, highlighting the possible consequences for the 2024 election.

Publication description

The most recent Eskom data comes into focus, in the midst of poor management of the entity, and concerning signs for the year ahead.

We close with a view of global trade disruptions in the Red Sea, and the forthcoming Taiwanese elections scheduled for 13 January.

Risk Alert | No country for growth

11 December 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the contraction of South Africa’s GDP in Q3, hinting on the likelihood of a technical recession, should this trend persist in Q4.

Publication description

South Africa’s geopolitical signals come under the spotlight, together with the trend of foreign companies expressing concerns about the country’s operating environment.

We close by unpacking the latest Blue Drop water report, while flagging the murder of a KwaZulu-Natal politician as a sign of growing political violence ahead of the 2024 polls.

Risk Alert | ANC flustered

04 December 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the candidate list headaches and financial woes afflicting the African National Congress.

Publication description

The issue of impending job cuts in the mining sector comes to the fore, as well as the challenges facing steelmaker ArcelorMittal.

We close by highlighting concerns voiced by the Ford Motor Company about its operations in South Africa, and an intergovernmental dispute declared by the Western Cape provincial government.

Risk Alert | Eskom’s Black Friday

27 November 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the return of Stage 6 loadshedding, and what comments by the Minister in the Presidency tell us about the government’s policy trajectory.

Publication description

The October inflation data takes the spotlight, including the operational struggles at South Africa’s largest poultry producer, Astral Foods.

We close by highlighting the approaching global elections season, as the new Argentinean administration settles in.

Risk Alert | Complex coalitions

20 November 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we comment on tensions in the ANC — between the National Executive Committee and the Gauteng caucus — as well as the latest quarterly crime statistics.

Publication description

A new report from Harvard University on South Africa’s growth constraints comes to the fore, together with an update on the country’s logistics crisis.

We close with a look at the latest unemployment statistics for South Africa, as well as core Consumer Price Index figures out of the United States.