Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Opting for overseas

09 October 2023 – In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we begin with a survey of university students which shows that alarming numbers want to emigrate.

Publication description

An assessment of the latest World Bank growth forecasts for South Africa and the region follows, including the domestic impact of developments in key global bond markets.

We close with a look at the implications of the attack on Israel launched by Hamas on Saturday.

Risk Alert | Crime turns red hot

02 October 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we provide an update on crime in South Africa and how it relates to the weakening of the South African state.

Publication description

A brief overview of the latest inflation-related data features, as well as the impact of the potential collapse of Transnet.

We close with a look at South Africa-United States relations, and the Chinese real estate market.

Risk Alert | Taps run dry

26 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag the looming water crisis in South Africa’s major urban areas, compounded by financial and infrastructural challenges in municipalities.

Publication description

South Africa’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) prospects come into focus, as concerns about the country’s broader foreign policy stance persist.

We close with a look at the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the repo rate, amid unease about inflation across the globe.

Risk Alert | Budget battle looms

18 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest weekly system status report from Eskom, and present the CRA’s electricity outage scenarios for the year ahead.

Publication description

South Africa’s messy fiscal landscape takes centre stage — including the implications for South Africa’s political and social landscape — of mounting stakeholder resistance to the Treasury’s proposed approach to budgetary cuts.

We close with a look at the possibility of a German economic downturn amid complex relations with China, while highlighting the missed opportunity for South Africa to position itself as a preferred investment destination.

Risk Alert | Eskom: maintenance deficit bites back

11 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look into the latest bout of Stage 6 loadshedding and unpack South Africa’s 0.6% quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate for Q2 2023.

Publication description

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s comments on the latest fiscal figures come into the spotlight, as well as the possible implications of the global risk-off environment for investment in South Africa.

We close with a look at the draft General Laws Intelligence Amendment Bill and its possible impact on religious and non-governmental organisations.

Risk Alert | Deficit days

04 September 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the rapid deterioration in public finances, and what it means for expensive new government projects such as the National Health Insurance.

Publication description

The state of Transnet comes into focus, including a surprising but welcome comment on cadre deployment from the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana.

We close with a note on the latest inflation figures, as well as a story about fed-up ratepayers in the Westville area of the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality.