Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | MK on the rampage

18 March 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest polling data tracking newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe’s growing levels of support, and unpack the implications of former president Jacob Zuma featuring at the top of the party’s candidate list.

Publication description

The ramping up of racial targets in the financial services industry is highlighted, together with party funding issues envisaged in the Electoral Matters Amendment Bill.

In closing, we analyse the impact of the damage to four undersea cables connecting South Africa to the world, as well as the latest CPI data from the United States.

Risk Alert | Squeaking past a recession

11 March 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag South Africa’s narrow escape from a technical recession, as the country battles with slow growth and weak infrastructure.

Publication description

The decline in business confidence is highlighted, even as state failures pave the way for private sector players to become anchors of stability.

In closing, we look at the impact of the turmoil in the taxi industry, as well as the implications of Johannesburg’s service delivery dilemma.

Risk Alert | The leaning tower of Eskom

04 March 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we share a short summary of a ‘confidential’ report on Eskom, amid ongoing concerns around the utility’s underperformance.

Publication description

The ANC’s election manifesto is assessed, together with the implications of the latest fixed investment numbers for South Africa’s economy.

In closing, we highlight the declining profits of chemicals and energy company — Sasol — and the outlook for the oil price in the foreseeable future.

Risk Alert | The SARB gets it

29 January 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the South African Reserve Bank’s latest rates decision, before examining updated inflation data.

Publication description

The implications of Eskom’s dwindling diesel supplies are highlighted, together with the impact of visa troubles on tourism.

In closing, we unpack the International Court of Justice’s judgment in the South Africa v Israel case, as well as positive news relating to the economy of the United States.

Risk Alert | A workmanlike budget

26 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess the 2024 Budget speech, highlighting South Africa’s runaway debt levels and the risks for the governing party’s electoral prospects.

Publication description

We warn of a new public procurement law currently before the National Council of Provinces, before turning to the latest unemployment numbers.

In closing, we share an update on the struggling Chinese property market and its impact on debt sustainability and consumer confidence, as well as the wider implications for South Africa.

Risk Alert | Beware the Ides of March

19 February 2024 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the ANC's lack of effective strategy against its opponents ahead of this year's national and provincial polls.

Publication description

We highlight the ramifications of the ruling party's cadre deployment policy, including the Competition Commission's apparent dabbling in aggressive activism.

In closing, we unpack South Africa’s declining fixed investment levels, as well as the events impacting the Bank of Japan's plans to raise interest rates.