Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje identifies the ideological and political contestation within the Tripartite Alliance as a major risk complicating South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery thereafter.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.

Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that despite the economic and market disruption, the worst case global scenarios for Covid-19 might be dissipating.

Publication description

While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.

Risk Alert (Week of 30 March)

In this week’s alert, Dr Frans Cronje warns that the SA response to the Covid-19 pandemic may not be as effective as in other countries, especially as poorer communities struggle to adhere to isolation protocols.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also looks beyond the current crisis to assess SA’s economic outlook post-Covid-19. Last week’s Moody’s downgrade will hinder recovery efforts, and will likely result in further ZAR weakening.

Risk Alert (Week of 23 March 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje assesses the SA government's capacity to respond to the rapidly unfolding Covid-19 crisis.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also discusses the volatility in international financial markets, the efficacy of stimulus measures, as well as prospects for the domestic and global economy in 2020.

Risk Alert (Week of 16 March 2020)

After the tumultuous events of last week, Dr Frans Cronje unpacks the ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 crisis and the consequent shocks in global financial markets.

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Risk Alert (Week of 9 March 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the US general elections, and the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Chinese manufacturing output.

Publication description

On the domestic front, Dr Cronje assesses the Finance Minister's prospects of reducing the public sector wage bill. Dr Cronje also highlights the risk of prescribed assets and the growing pressure on the SARB to loosen interest rates.

For queries on these or other points, please contact Bheki Mahlobo, who assisted Dr Cronje with the production of this alert.