Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA GDP contracts for third consecutive quarter… and counting

6 July 2020 - This week, CRA analyst Bheki Mahlobo discusses South Africa’s chronically underperforming economy.

Publication description

As GDP declined by 2% in Q1 2020, South Africa’s recession continued for the third consecutive quarter under President Cyril Ramaphosa. Further contractions of over 30% are expected in Q2 as a consequence of the government-imposed Lockdown.

This comes amidst signs of a robust post-Covid-19 global recovery driven by gradual re-opening in the developed world.

Risk Alert | Next steps for SA: will fiscal pressure breed reform?

29 June 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that fears of a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections in America are misplaced, but that such fears might nevertheless rattle financial markets.

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Risk Alert | Debt and deficits likely to balloon in Tito's Emergency Budget

22 June 2020 - Dr Frans Cronje discusses this week’s emergency budget, which will likely reveal that economic growth will contract by at least -7% for 2020.

Publication description

Capacity shortfalls at Eskom and a limited appetite for structural reform will put a hard cap on economic growth prospects going forward, he says.

On the international front, Dr Cronje discusses recent clashes on the border between China and India, as well as simmering tensions between North and South Korea.

Risk Alert | Can SA take advantage of stronger global commodity prices?

15 June 2020 - This week, CRA analyst, Bheki Mahlobo explores whether South Africa can take advantage of increased commodity prices as the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis.

Publication description

Mahlobo also discusses the prospects for reform in South Africa’s electoral system, as well as recent polling which suggests high demand for deregulation of the labour market.

Risk Alert (Week of 08 June 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the implications of a recent ANC policy document which seeks to empower the state to direct a greater share of economic activity and to finance such activity by tapping private savings.

Publication description

Internationally, Dr Cronje highlights how markets and employment numbers in the developed world are beginning to rebound despite enormous global geostrategic volatility.

Risk Alert (Week of 1 June 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje raises concerns about South Africa’s Covid-19 testing and tracing capabilities as the country enters level 3 of its Lockdown.

Publication description

On the international front, Dr Cronje notes that R remains below 1 for much of Europe, America, and Asia, signalling the early stages of a global recovery.

Beyond Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights the restrictions on Hong Kong’s autonomy by Beijing, as well as growing Russian influence in Libya.