Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Has SA really passed its Covid-19 peak?

17 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss a new trend in South Africa’s Covid-19 data: sharply decreasing testing numbers.

Publication description

As belated attempts are made to reopen the economy, has South Africa really passed its peak, as we have confidently argued over the last two weeks?

Also assessed is the track record of Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee for Vice President of the United States.

Risk Alert | Will Tito Mboweni deliver another Budget speech?

10 August 2020 - In this week's Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje discusses rumours of the departure of South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also reveals the underlying reasons for the recent turning of public opinion against the ANC government.

Finally, Dr Cronje contemplates the veracity of 'Second Wave' fears, and the implications for the nascent global economic recovery.

Risk Alert | Has SA reached its Covid-19 peak?

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that Covid-19 infections have already peaked in South Africa, which could herald rapid economic and social reopening into the spring.

Publication description

The shrinking tax base and growing public expenditure heightens the possibility of the country falling into a debt trap, he says.

Dr Cronje also assesses the validity of the ‘Second Wave’ thesis and the consequences for the global economy.

Risk Alert | Can IMF funding lead to policy reform?

27 July 2020 − This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the policy and ideological significance of soon-to-be-announced IMF funding for South Africa in the midst of the country’s growing fiscal crisis and governance failures.

Publication description

On the international front, Dr Cronje assesses the purported ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 infections in the US and Europe, as well as the ongoing tit-for-tat posturing between the US and China.

Risk Alert | SA jobs bloodbath and four risks for the global economy

20 July 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the results of a recent survey which revealed that an estimated 3 million jobs may have been lost as a consequence of the lockdown.

Publication description

Government plans to introduce a basic income grant to offset the social and economic impact of the lockdown will put even more pressure on the already strained fiscus. Government may make a move on private pensions to finance the grant programme, he argues.

Although the global economy appears to be bouncing back after Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights four risks which may derail this recovery.

Risk Alert | ANC policy papers show little sign of reform

13 July 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje highlights three policy papers which entered the public domain last week from within the government and the ANC. Neither paper puts forward anything by way of substantive structural reform, he argues.

Publication description

With manufacturing and trade volumes increasing across the developed world, we see the likelihood of South Africa de-coupling from the post-Covid-19 global recovery continuing to grow.