Risk Alert
Risk Alert | Can IMF funding lead to policy reform?
Publication description
On the international front, Dr Cronje assesses the purported ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 infections in the US and Europe, as well as the ongoing tit-for-tat posturing between the US and China.
Risk Alert | SA jobs bloodbath and four risks for the global economy
Publication description
Government plans to introduce a basic income grant to offset the social and economic impact of the lockdown will put even more pressure on the already strained fiscus. Government may make a move on private pensions to finance the grant programme, he argues.
Although the global economy appears to be bouncing back after Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights four risks which may derail this recovery.
Risk Alert | ANC policy papers show little sign of reform
Publication description
With manufacturing and trade volumes increasing across the developed world, we see the likelihood of South Africa de-coupling from the post-Covid-19 global recovery continuing to grow.
Risk Alert | SA GDP contracts for third consecutive quarter… and counting
Publication description
As GDP declined by 2% in Q1 2020, South Africa’s recession continued for the third consecutive quarter under President Cyril Ramaphosa. Further contractions of over 30% are expected in Q2 as a consequence of the government-imposed Lockdown.
This comes amidst signs of a robust post-Covid-19 global recovery driven by gradual re-opening in the developed world.
Risk Alert | Debt and deficits likely to balloon in Tito's Emergency Budget
Publication description
Capacity shortfalls at Eskom and a limited appetite for structural reform will put a hard cap on economic growth prospects going forward, he says.
On the international front, Dr Cronje discusses recent clashes on the border between China and India, as well as simmering tensions between North and South Korea.