Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert (Week of 11 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers tensions between the United States and China, and the prospects for both economies in a post-Covid-19 global recovery.

Publication description

Domestically, Dr Cronje highlights the recent statements made by President Ramaphosa in favour of “Radical Economic Transformation”  as well as the isolation of the Finance Minister within the cabinet.

Risk Alert (Week of 4 May 2020)

This week, Bheki Mahlobo argues that the move from Stage 5 to Stage 4 lockdown represents a political response to public frustration at the lockdown, rather than a substantive change in policy.

Publication description

Mahlobo notes that the reform faction of the ANC remains a minority, with the securocrats and ideologues controlling the balance of power.

Internationally, Mahlobo highlights the risk of South Africa’s foreign policy stances undermining longer term access to western funding.

Risk Alert (Week of 27 April)

CRA Research Assistant, Bheki Mahlobo argues that this week’s expected move from phase 5 to phase 4 of the South African lockdown may do relatively little to restore much by way of domestic economic activity.

Publication description

Mahlobo notes that the weakness of South Africa’s stimulus position, combined with the flaws in the new lockdown model could see a major crisis in which public confidence in the government collapses just as the South African infection curve escalates and millions of people are forced to come to terms with deepening impoverishment.

Risk Alert (Week of 20 April)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje considers the proposal by the European Commission to reopen the economies of Europe, and contrasts this with the recent tightening of restrictions in Japan.

Publication description

On South Africa, Dr Cronje discusses the growing likelihood of increased stimulus spending and highlights the prospect of money-printing as a medium-term risk.

Dr Cronje also reflects on the risks attendant to a premature re-opening of South Africa’s schools, which, he argues, would undermine much of the effect of the lockdown to date.

Risk Alert (Week of 13 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje identifies the ideological and political contestation within the Tripartite Alliance as a major risk complicating South Africa’s response to the Covid-19 crisis and the recovery thereafter.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also provides projections of Covid-19 mortality estimates based on various case fatality rates (from 0.5% on the lower end to 2% on the top end). He argues that without much improved levels of testing, analysts and policy makers alike are effectively driving blind in their response to the pandemic.

Risk Alert (Week of 6 April 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that despite the economic and market disruption, the worst case global scenarios for Covid-19 might be dissipating.

Publication description

While there may be relative upsides beginning to emerge internationally, Dr Cronje’s assessment of South Africa’s recovery prospects are more downbeat as isolation protocols falter and the economic impact of the lockdown begin to be felt.