Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Debt and deficits likely to balloon in Tito's Emergency Budget

22 June 2020 - Dr Frans Cronje discusses this week’s emergency budget, which will likely reveal that economic growth will contract by at least -7% for 2020.

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Capacity shortfalls at Eskom and a limited appetite for structural reform will put a hard cap on economic growth prospects going forward, he says.

On the international front, Dr Cronje discusses recent clashes on the border between China and India, as well as simmering tensions between North and South Korea.

Risk Alert | Can SA take advantage of stronger global commodity prices?

15 June 2020 - This week, CRA analyst, Bheki Mahlobo explores whether South Africa can take advantage of increased commodity prices as the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis.

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Mahlobo also discusses the prospects for reform in South Africa’s electoral system, as well as recent polling which suggests high demand for deregulation of the labour market.

Risk Alert (Week of 08 June 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the implications of a recent ANC policy document which seeks to empower the state to direct a greater share of economic activity and to finance such activity by tapping private savings.

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Internationally, Dr Cronje highlights how markets and employment numbers in the developed world are beginning to rebound despite enormous global geostrategic volatility.

Risk Alert (Week of 1 June 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje raises concerns about South Africa’s Covid-19 testing and tracing capabilities as the country enters level 3 of its Lockdown.

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On the international front, Dr Cronje notes that R remains below 1 for much of Europe, America, and Asia, signalling the early stages of a global recovery.

Beyond Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights the restrictions on Hong Kong’s autonomy by Beijing, as well as growing Russian influence in Libya.

Risk Alert (Week of 25 May 2020)

Following President Ramaphosa’s announcement last night, Dr Frans Cronje argues that support for the economic lockdown has largely collapsed within the government and that the move to level-3 will see a significant degree of economic reopening.

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CRA calculations reveal that South Africa’s R rate remains above 1, suggesting that the pandemic is still expanding exponentially more than 60 days after the country recorded its 100th case.

Risk Alert (Week of 18 May 2020)

This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that South Africa’s purported move to Lockdown Level 3 remains vague, with no clear benchmarks attached to the various levels, and no plan in place to manage the transition.

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Globally, Dr Cronje observes that the continued posturing between the USA and China will be tempered by both nations’ interdependent trade relationship.

Expect a stuttering economic re-opening in Europe and the UK if Covid-19 reproductive rates remain below 1.