Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Has SA reached its Covid-19 peak?

This week, Dr Frans Cronje argues that Covid-19 infections have already peaked in South Africa, which could herald rapid economic and social reopening into the spring.

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The shrinking tax base and growing public expenditure heightens the possibility of the country falling into a debt trap, he says.

Dr Cronje also assesses the validity of the ‘Second Wave’ thesis and the consequences for the global economy.

Risk Alert | Can IMF funding lead to policy reform?

27 July 2020 − This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the policy and ideological significance of soon-to-be-announced IMF funding for South Africa in the midst of the country’s growing fiscal crisis and governance failures.

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On the international front, Dr Cronje assesses the purported ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 infections in the US and Europe, as well as the ongoing tit-for-tat posturing between the US and China.

Risk Alert | SA jobs bloodbath and four risks for the global economy

20 July 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje discusses the results of a recent survey which revealed that an estimated 3 million jobs may have been lost as a consequence of the lockdown.

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Government plans to introduce a basic income grant to offset the social and economic impact of the lockdown will put even more pressure on the already strained fiscus. Government may make a move on private pensions to finance the grant programme, he argues.

Although the global economy appears to be bouncing back after Covid-19, Dr Cronje highlights four risks which may derail this recovery.

Risk Alert | ANC policy papers show little sign of reform

13 July 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje highlights three policy papers which entered the public domain last week from within the government and the ANC. Neither paper puts forward anything by way of substantive structural reform, he argues.

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With manufacturing and trade volumes increasing across the developed world, we see the likelihood of South Africa de-coupling from the post-Covid-19 global recovery continuing to grow.

Risk Alert | SA GDP contracts for third consecutive quarter… and counting

6 July 2020 - This week, CRA analyst Bheki Mahlobo discusses South Africa’s chronically underperforming economy.

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As GDP declined by 2% in Q1 2020, South Africa’s recession continued for the third consecutive quarter under President Cyril Ramaphosa. Further contractions of over 30% are expected in Q2 as a consequence of the government-imposed Lockdown.

This comes amidst signs of a robust post-Covid-19 global recovery driven by gradual re-opening in the developed world.

Risk Alert | Next steps for SA: will fiscal pressure breed reform?

29 June 2020 - This week, Dr Frans Cronje, argues that fears of a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections in America are misplaced, but that such fears might nevertheless rattle financial markets.

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