Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | How accurate are Treasury forecasts?

2 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo analyse the growth, debt and deficit projections presented by the Finance Minister at last week’s mini-budget.

Publication description

In the absence of structural reform, what are the risks associated with the government’s current fiscal trajectory?

Cronje and Mahlobo also look abroad to renewed Covid-19 risks in Europe as well as this week’s election in America.

Risk Alert | Who will win the race in America?

26 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo draw on the CRA’s electoral tracker to determine who is most likely to win the US presidential election on 3 November.

Publication description

While Mr Biden still appears well ahead in the electoral college vote, several swing states could tip the balance in favour of Mr Trump.

On the domestic front, Cronje and Mahlobo look ahead to this week’s interim budget speech and present the CRA’s growth estimates for the medium term.

Risk Alert | Quackery in the Union Buildings

19 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight how proponents of ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ appear to be influencing the economic policy agenda in the Union Buildings.

Publication description

A slightly reworked Expropriation Bill opens the door to expropriation without compensation across various asset classes, including (but not limited to) land.

The IMF has revised its global growth estimates upwards, while India forges ahead with long-awaited reforms.

Risk Alert | Real reform or simply good PR?

12 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss recent attempts by the ANC government to swing the narrative on corruption and policy reform.

Publication description

Is the power of trade unions in South Africa on the decline following last week's failed attempt at a national strike?

Will Joe Biden sustain his lead in the build-up to next month's US presidential election?

Risk Alert | The risk of unemployment

5 October 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo explore the complicated nature of South Africa’s official unemployment statistics.

Publication description

What is the risk of the growing unemployment problem to the ANC government and the country as a whole?

While some moves are being made to assuage public opinion on corruption in the ANC, Cronje and Mahlobo caution against being distracted by what they term ‘political rabbits.’

Risk Alert | SAA handling indicative of broader policy reform outlook

28 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the government’s retreat from its assurance that it would not provide bailout financing for SAA, suggesting that this is a useful measure of broader prospects for policy reform.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo also warn that fears of second wave Covid-19 infections in Europe might rattle markets and policy makers.

Who will emerge victorious in the US Presidential race?