Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | ANC retreats from SARB nationalisation, prescribed assets

21 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the ANC’s strategic retreat from Reserve Bank nationalisation and prescribed assets.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo argue that these risks may be delayed, but not entirely removed.

Will there be peace and stability in the Middle East following the normalisation of various Arab countries’ ties with Israel?

Risk Alert | 5 ways ANC cadres could avoid corruption charges

7 September 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo argue that mainstream analysts may have misread the ANC’s supposedly tougher stance on corruption.

Publication description

Cronje and Mahlobo outline five ways in which ANC members implicated in corruption could avoid having to ‘step aside’ from their positions.

Although the global recovery continues, there are a variety of indicators that suggest the world is entering a more erratic recovery phase.

Risk Alert | Corruption an existential threat to the ANC

31 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo look at the ANC’s debilitating corruption dilemma.

Publication description

Will there be a more aggressive approach from President Ramaphosa in tackling corruption?

In lieu of prosecutions, can internal disciplinary processes succeed, given how widespread corruption is within the National Executive of the party?

These and other key questions are discussed against the backdrop of the ANC’s deep and persistent factional divisions.

Risk Alert | Terrorism in Africa: is SA under threat?

24 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the growing threat of Salafi-jihadisim in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication description

Will South Africa's security be threatened by terrorism over the medium-term as a consequence?

Despite assurances of party leaders, the ANC remains committed to prescribed assets in South Africa, and we explore the ideological drivers behind this.

Risk Alert | Has SA really passed its Covid-19 peak?

17 August 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss a new trend in South Africa’s Covid-19 data: sharply decreasing testing numbers.

Publication description

As belated attempts are made to reopen the economy, has South Africa really passed its peak, as we have confidently argued over the last two weeks?

Also assessed is the track record of Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee for Vice President of the United States.

Risk Alert | Will Tito Mboweni deliver another Budget speech?

10 August 2020 - In this week's Risk Alert, Dr Frans Cronje discusses rumours of the departure of South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni.

Publication description

Dr Cronje also reveals the underlying reasons for the recent turning of public opinion against the ANC government.

Finally, Dr Cronje contemplates the veracity of 'Second Wave' fears, and the implications for the nascent global economic recovery.