Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | What is going on in the ANC?

5 April 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje outline three interpretations of recent events in the ANC.

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Mahlobo and Cronje also look into the likelihood of a third wave of Covid-19 infections in South Africa.

With Parliament set to push through Expropriation legislation as well as amend the Constitution, what will the government do with its new powers?

Risk Alert | New political formations on the horizon?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the likelihood of an emergence of two new political formations from rival factions of the ANC.

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Mahlobo and Cronje also lay out three scenarios for Jacob Zuma, following the Zondo Commission’s appeal to the Constitutional Court to jail him for contempt.

Internationally, Mahlobo and Cronje look at recent events in North Korea, Turkey, Israel, China and the United States.

Risk Alert | The Public Protector and the balance of power in the ANC

22 March 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje reflect on the significance of last week’s vote in Parliament on the fitness to hold office of the Public Protector.

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What does this vote say about the balance of power within the ANC and the prospects for policy reform in the country?

Cronje and Mahlobo also dissect the ongoing delays to South Africa’s Covid-19 vaccination programme and whether this may increase the likelihood of a ‘third wave’ of infections.

Risk Alert | Three big tests for the ANC

16 March 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje identify three ‘referendums’ to determine the ANC’s potential for reform.

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Will the private sector move on vaccines amidst ongoing delays by the state, they ask?

Mahlobo and Cronje conclude by discussing the prospects for the US Dollar and the South African Rand.

Risk Alert | Have SA’s courts been compromised?

8 March 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje highlight the risk to the integrity of South Africa’s judiciary.

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Ongoing wage negotiations with public sector unions seem likely to undermine the Finance Minister’s plans to curtail spending, they argue.

What do ongoing delays with South Africa’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout say about the relationship between private healthcare providers and the state, they ask?

Risk Alert | South Africa’s fiscal quagmire

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss National Treasury’s economic growth, deficit and debt outlook for South Africa.

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The country’s low growth outlook will undermine prospects for any recovery in employment levels, while poor school outcomes continue to hinder labour absorption.

Is the global economy entering a period of sustained recovery?