Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Wage freezes already beginning to thaw

7 December 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss what public sector wage negotiations reveal about South Africa’s broader policy direction.

Publication description

Are prescribed assets really off the table, or will ‘infrastructure bonds’ be used to plug the government’s expenditure gaps with private savings?

Cronje and Mahlobo also consider whether South Africa may see the reintroduction of hard lockdowns in the near future.

Risk Alert | Violence and anarchy in SA

30 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the growing risk of violence and anarchy in South Africa.

Publication description

Do the police, army and intelligence services have the capacity to counter these multiple threats?

Cronje and Mahlobo also consider the short-term global risk equation going into 2021.

Risk Alert | Austerity or reform?

23 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the botched retrenchments at the SABC and what the resultant backlash signifies about power dynamics within the government.

Publication description

As organised business groups lobby for civil service job cuts, will austerity measures strengthen anti-reform and anti-business activists within the Tripartite Alliance?

Cronje and Mahlobo conclude by turning their attention to East Asia, where a new multilateral trade agreement promises to strengthen China’s hand in the region.

Risk Alert | Why Ace Magashule’s arrest won’t stop corruption in the ANC

16 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the arrest of ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule.

Publication description

Does Mr Magashule’s arrest signal a shift in the ANC’s approach to corruption within the party or will it be business as usual?

Mainstream analyst and media opinion may have misread last week’s by-election results and what these signify for the status of the major parties.

Cronje and Mahlobo also review a number of global flashpoints including nuclear capabilities in Iran, the further capitulation of Hong Kong to Beijing, and tensions within Boris Johnson’s government over a UK-EU Brexit deal.

Risk Alert | Which way will the Rand go?

9 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo give their view on the Rand and whether there is an upside risk in the currency strengthening.

Publication description

What is going on with Covid-19 in Europe and America and what does this mean for the global economy?

As a new era begins in America, how will markets and business react to the new balance of power?

Risk Alert | How accurate are Treasury forecasts?

2 November 2020 - In this week’s client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo analyse the growth, debt and deficit projections presented by the Finance Minister at last week’s mini-budget.

Publication description

In the absence of structural reform, what are the risks associated with the government’s current fiscal trajectory?

Cronje and Mahlobo also look abroad to renewed Covid-19 risks in Europe as well as this week’s election in America.