Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | A view from the US

25 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with insights from CRA director John Endres — currently in the United States — into the incoming Trump administration.

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Next are South Africa’s G20 chairmanship challenges and opportunities. We then unpack developments behind the scenes at the State Security Agency. 
 
We close with an analysis of inflation data and the South African Reserve Bank’s latest rate cut, along with rising business confidence hobbled by governance shortcomings in Gauteng.

Risk Alert | The NHI elephant in the room

18 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the impending implementation of the National Health Insurance and its potential impact on the stability of the Government of National Unity.

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We comment on the boost in employment numbers between the second and third quarters of this year, coupled with some news indicating a potential upgrade of South Africa’s credit rating.

We close with a look at United States president-elect Donald Trump’s first cabinet nominations.

Risk Alert | Trump comes roaring back

11 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the US election victory of Donald Trump and assess what it means for South Africa.

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We comment on the latest interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and then turn to domestic politics, where the exodus of high-profile members of the EFF is continuing apace.

We move on to the spat between Eskom and the City of Johannesburg before looking at the collapse of the German coalition government and the lessons it holds for South Africa’s Government of National Unity.

Risk Alert | MTBPS highlights low-growth threat

4 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the 2024 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, as well as positive signs relating to South Africa’s greylisting.

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Steel producer ArcelorMittal’s ongoing struggles in South Africa are highlighted; and Botswana elects its sixth president — the first from an opposition party in 58 years of independence.

We close with an analysis indicating the declining appetite for DEI initiatives in the world’s major corporations.

Risk Alert | GNU partners divided over foreign policy

28 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin by looking at the latest squabbles in the Government of National Unity, the members of which have different views on what SA’s foreign policy stance should be.

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We then review the latest inflation numbers and what they mean for the economy and public finances. Thereafter we assess the implications of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, a pending EU import tariff on carbon-intensive products.

We close with a comment on the Mozambican election result.

Risk Alert | Red berets in trouble

21 October 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the rapidly declining fortunes of the Economic Freedom Fighters in the aftermath of the 2024 election.

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