Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Two swallows do not a summer make

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the significance of last week’s majority sale of South African Airways to a private buyer, as well as government’s lifting of the cap on private electricity generation to 100MW.

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Do these developments herald a broader shift in the direction of policy towards reform, they ask?

Cronje and Mahlobo also flag the risk of global tax floors to the competitiveness of Western economies.

Risk Alert | The ANC’s attack on foreign businesses

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the significance of moves aimed at restricting foreign-owned business activity in South Africa, including Netflix and Burger King.

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Cronje and Mahlobo also dissect the supposed ‘spat’ between the ANC and the EFF over Expropriation Without Compensation.

Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize is in trouble, with rumours of his imminent resignation. Should he depart from the Cabinet, what will be the implications of his exit, they ask?

Risk Alert | Was Covid-19 cooked up in a lab?

31 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the ongoing effects of Covid-19 in South Africa and the world.

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Is vaccine resistance growing in the West, and did the virus originate from a Chinese laboratory, as new evidence suggests?

Why did Big Tech companies withhold this information from users of their platforms, and what is the risk of continued digital censorship, they ask?

Risk Alert | SA’s vaccine roll-out a trial run for NHI

24 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Bheki Mahlobo and Frans Cronje discuss the sophisticated lobby behind the South African government’s proposed National Health Insurance policy and the risks facing the private medical aid industry.

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The Covid-19 vaccine rollout is a trial run of NHI, they argue.

Mahlobo and Cronje also examine South Africa’s widening trade surplus. What are the long-term implications for the Rand, they ask?

Risk Alert | New fronts in the Middle East

17 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight the risk of new fronts in the current Israeli conflict.

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Cronje and Mahlobo also assert that while inflation in the short term is a real concern for global economic prospects, the greater risk is a long-term era of deflation.

What are the implications of the contemplated changes to the wording of South Africa’s Constitutional Amendment Bill allowing expropriation without compensation (EWC), they ask?

Risk Alert | Ace in a hole – the four risks

10 May 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo highlight four risks arising from last week’s suspension of ANC Secretary General, Ace Magashule.

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What are the dangers in the proposed amendments to the Promotion of Equality and Prevention of Unfair Discrimination Act (PEPUDA), they ask?

Cronje and Mahlobo also examine whether South Africa is on the brink of a ‘third wave’ of Covid-19 infections.