Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The ANC has no money

30 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss the deteriorating financial position of the African National Congress (ANC), and what this reveals about the party’s ability to effectively govern South Africa.

Publication description

Has the ANC given up on job creation in favour of a universal basic income grant, they ask?

Endres and Jonas conclude by exploring whether U.S. policymakers will commence with “tapering” of government stimulus measures, and the impact this might have on the global economy.

Risk Alert | State Capture 2.0

22 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss the risk of the proposed National Social Security Fund.

Publication description

Could this herald the start of a second round of State Capture, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also explore the geopolitical implications of the United States’ shambolic exit from Afghanistan and new security threats which may arise in the region.

Risk Alert | The growing importance of KZN

16 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the growing importance of KwaZulu-Natal in South African politics.

Publication description

Will KZN swing the next national election, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo also explore the threat to constitutional democracy of a possible postponement of the local government elections.

Risk Alert | Old cards, reshuffled

9 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss last week’s changes to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cabinet, and what the reshuffle suggests about the policy direction of the government.

Publication description

Endres and Jonas also assess the risk of a ‘slow motion coup’ in SA in the form of a delay to the local government elections, as well as the continued vulnerability of state-owned enterprises to cyberattacks.

Risk Alert | China’s attack on Big Tech: implications for SA

2 August 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss the significance of China’s crackdown on technology companies.

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Risk Alert | SA’s shifting paradigms

26 July 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo assess the sustainability of South Africa as a unitary state.

Publication description

As governance continues to deteriorate, what new paradigms might emerge in the future, they ask?

Cronje and Mahlobo also highlight the ongoing risks of Expropriation Without Compensation, the weakness of the state security services, and a potential delay to the local government elections.