Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Lost jobs aren’t coming back

6 December 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the latest South African jobs data, before turning to international politics, where rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine portend even higher energy prices.

Publication description

Is there a housing bubble in developed economies, and what will cause it to pop, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude with the CRA’s latest analysis of the Covid-19 Omicron variant.

Risk Alert | How serious is Omicron?

29 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the impact on global markets of a new fast-spreading variant of the coronavirus, recently discovered in South Africa.

Publication description

How serious is the Omicron strain, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo also examine the low level of business confidence in SA, and unpack the reasons why the ANC is unable to deal with corruption in its own ranks. 

Risk Alert | The spectre of inflation

22 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo flag the spectre of inflation currently haunting Europe and America.

Publication description

How will the South African Reserve Bank’s decision last week to hike interest rates by 25 basis points affect the demand for credit and the performance of the Rand, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo also discuss the lack of cohesion amongst South Africa’s various opposition parties as they struggle to form coalitions in the country’s major cities.

Risk Alert | SA's vulnerable economy

15 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo unpack last week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement.

Publication description

Is Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana serious about structural reform, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude with an assessment of the prospects for the global economy, following the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve that it will begin “tapering” its monetary stimulus programme. 

Risk Alert | The buffalo and the wild dogs

8 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the fallout from last week's watershed local government elections.

Publication description

Will opposition parties be able to form a united front against the ANC and the EFF, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude by exploring how South Africa's new era of coalition politics will influence the run-up to the national and provincial elections in 2024.

Risk Alert | The long-awaited political realignment

1 November 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas discuss four trends that will emerge from today’s local government elections.

Publication description

Will these elections trigger the long-awaited political realignment, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also explore what Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's postponement of his inaugural Medium Term Budget Policy Statement reveals about the state of public finances.