Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Ports under pressure

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo flag the risk of South Africa’s deteriorating ports, which are now among the lowest ranked in the world.

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Can we expect further interest rate hikes from the South African Reserve Bank after last week’s rate decision, they ask?

On the global stage, Endres and Mahlobo explore how China’s looming demographic crisis may force the country to accelerate its global power ambitions.

Risk Alert | Will inflation breach the SARB’s ceiling?

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss whether inflation will breach the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank’s target range of 3% to 6%.

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Will a new R11 billion loan from the World Bank to South Africa delay much-needed economic reforms, they ask?

On the international front, Endres and Mahlobo explore the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and ask whether Boris Johnson can survive as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Risk Alert | Whither the ANC?

17 January 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the waning fortunes of the African National Congress (ANC).

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Can the ANC survive the growing threats to its power from both the left and the right, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo also examine South Africa’s declining manufacturing output amidst ongoing supply chain and electricity constraints.

Risk Alert | Does Zondo mark a turning point?

10 January 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Simpe Jonas explore the implications of the Zondo Commission’s recently-released report on state capture.

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Will the publication of the report lead to prosecutions and convictions of senior ANC politicians, they ask?

Endres and Jonas also examine the fallout from the fire that caused major damage to the Parliamentary Precinct on 2 January.

Risk Alert | The biggest risks facing SA and the world in 2022

13 December 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo look back on the trends and events that shaped South Africa and the world in 2021.

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Risk Alert | Lost jobs aren’t coming back

6 December 2021 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, John Endres and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the latest South African jobs data, before turning to international politics, where rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine portend even higher energy prices.

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Is there a housing bubble in developed economies, and what will cause it to pop, they ask?

Endres and Mahlobo conclude with the CRA’s latest analysis of the Covid-19 Omicron variant.