Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA’s failing municipalities

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the risk of South Africa’s dysfunctional municipalities, the majority of which are in a state of financial distress.

Publication description

Recent remarks by President Cyril Ramaphosa suggest that he may be tempted to sacrifice government pensions on the altar of failing State Owned Enterprises, we warn.

Has the U.S. Federal Reserve pricked the ‘everything bubble’ by raising interest rates too aggressively, we ask?

Risk Alert | ANC in turmoil

13 June 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss what recent by-elections reveal about the ANC’s political fortunes in the run-up to the 2024 national elections.

Publication description

Could the theft of millions of U.S. dollars from President Cyril Ramaphosa’s game farm tarnish his reputation and unleash infighting within the ANC, we ask?

We also examine how global economic headwinds could undermine South Africa’s modest economic recovery, and flag the risk of rising levels of violent crime.

Risk Alert | SA's stuttering recovery

6 June 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss South Africa’s persistently high unemployment levels, and the risk this poses to social and economic stability in the country.

Publication description

Is South Africa’s trade windfall coming to an end, and what will this mean for the fiscus and the Rand, we ask?

We also highlight how race-based employment and procurement policies have undermined the performance of South Africa’s energy utility, Eskom.

Risk Alert | Price controls coming

30 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we warn of the risk of a new draft trade policy that will see the introduction of price controls in the South African economy.

Publication description

Could inflation lead to increased social unrest of the kind seen in July 2021, we ask?

We also discuss the recent criticism of the ANC government by several high-profile business leaders, and what this reveals about the prospects for economic reform in the current administration.

Risk Alert | The ANC is worried

23 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore a recent ANC discussion document which reveals that the party is increasingly worried by its inability to govern the country.

Publication description

Will this concern lead the party to embrace fundamental policy reforms, we ask?

We also discuss the impact of the South African Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate hike on the inflation outlook. 

Risk Alert | SA mining: the hobbled giant

16 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the difficulties of mining in South Africa.

Publication description

What does the government’s mismanagement of the mining industry reveal about policy reform prospects in South Africa, we ask?

We also highlight the risks to the country’s energy security, including the ongoing blackouts and worsening fuel supply constraints.