Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Inflation: a global menace

25 April 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the scourge of inflation, which is spreading rapidly across the world.

Publication description

What will be the effect of rising food and energy prices on political stability in Africa and Europe, and how will policymakers respond?
 
We also discuss what last week’s clash between an Eskom board member and a Member of Parliament reveals about the perception of the government’s so-called reform agenda.

Risk Alert | KZN's costly floods

19 April 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the impact of the calamitous floods in KwaZulu-Natal on infrastructure and supply chains in the province and the country as a whole.

Publication description

Amid worsening trade conditions in South Africa, Transnet has declared force majeure.

Internationally, we look at the risks around the hard lockdowns across China and ask whether inflation in the United States has topped out.

Risk Alert | SA’s crumbling roads

11 April 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss South Africa’s deteriorating road infrastructure, and the impact this is having on the country’s economic competitiveness.

Publication description

Could we see an escalation of social unrest in China in response to the government’s draconian Covid-19 lockdown, we ask?

National Health Insurance is back on the agenda and could lead to a mass exodus of medical professionals, we warn.

Risk Alert | A glimmer of hope?

4 April 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we identify a small glimmer of hope on the horizon for South Africa’s ailing economy.

Publication description

What reforms will be needed to unlock growth and reduce unemployment, we ask?

Internationally, we examine whether a recession is looming in the United States, and if the European Union can contain the food security problems resulting from the war in Ukraine.

Risk Alert | SA investment: where is the money ?

28 March 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the latest increase in the benchmark repo rate by the South African Reserve Bank and spell out the likely effects on South Africa’s economy.

Publication description

We also flag policy own goals as the main deterrent to investment in South Africa — which investment conferences cannot fix — and advise of the rising risk of anti-constitutionalist sentiments among prominent political figures.

On the global front, we caution that the increase in the cost of agricultural inputs will cause disruptions in international food trade as well as raise the likelihood of social unrest and upheaval in parts of the globe.

Risk Alert | Between a rock and a hard place

2 March 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explain why South African businesses are caught between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with hostile government policy.

Publication description

We also warn of increased anti-foreigner sentiment, and its growing use as a tool of political mobilisation in South Africa.

Looking at the global economy, we discuss whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates, and also speculate on the decline of the U.S. Dollar as an international reserve currency.