Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA's stuttering recovery

6 June 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss South Africa’s persistently high unemployment levels, and the risk this poses to social and economic stability in the country.

Publication description

Is South Africa’s trade windfall coming to an end, and what will this mean for the fiscus and the Rand, we ask?

We also highlight how race-based employment and procurement policies have undermined the performance of South Africa’s energy utility, Eskom.

Risk Alert | Price controls coming

30 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we warn of the risk of a new draft trade policy that will see the introduction of price controls in the South African economy.

Publication description

Could inflation lead to increased social unrest of the kind seen in July 2021, we ask?

We also discuss the recent criticism of the ANC government by several high-profile business leaders, and what this reveals about the prospects for economic reform in the current administration.

Risk Alert | The ANC is worried

23 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore a recent ANC discussion document which reveals that the party is increasingly worried by its inability to govern the country.

Publication description

Will this concern lead the party to embrace fundamental policy reforms, we ask?

We also discuss the impact of the South African Reserve Bank’s latest interest rate hike on the inflation outlook.

Risk Alert | SA mining: the hobbled giant

16 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the difficulties of mining in South Africa.

Publication description

What does the government’s mismanagement of the mining industry reveal about policy reform prospects in South Africa, we ask?

We also highlight the risks to the country’s energy security, including the ongoing blackouts and worsening fuel supply constraints.

Risk Alert | Fed hikes rates

9 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the latest interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Publication description

How does the public sector wage bill affect the Treasury’s plans to rein in government expenditure, and is South Africa likely to see executive pay caps introduced through legislation?

We also discuss the impact of China’s zero-Covid policy on its outsize role as a supplier of manufactured goods and significant consumer of imported raw materials.

Risk Alert | Reinsurer rerates SA risk

3 May 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the currently favourable perception of South African debt risk abroad.

Publication description

What does the situation at the military’s Special Forces School in the capital — Pretoria — say about the capacity of the South African state?

We also discuss South Africa’s inflation outlook and hint at the possibility of a recession in the United States.