Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA's botched greylisting response

17 October 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess the indirect consequences of South Africa’s belated attempts to avoid being ‘greylisted’ by a global anti-money laundering and terrorism financing watchdog.

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The ongoing strike at Transnet has crippled the country’s ports and poses a risk to the broader economy, we argue.

Will Chinese President Xi Jinping be re-elected for a third term, and what will this mean for the future trajectory of China, we ask?

Risk Alert | SA manufacturing under pressure

10 October 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight how South African manufacturers are struggling to cope with hostile government policies and a slowing global economy.

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Johannesburg’s poorly maintained water infrastructure means the city could face continued watershedding problems in the future, we warn.

We conclude by examining whether the ongoing protests in Iran could lead to the toppling of that country’s authoritarian regime and what this might mean for the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Risk Alert | A double blow to property rights

3 October 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we flag the risk of two laws that threaten to undermine property rights in South Africa.

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What impact will the Expropriation Bill and the Land Courts Bill have on investment and growth in the country, we ask?

We also explore the ANC’s internal leadership battles, as well as last week’s successful vote of no confidence to remove the Executive Mayor of Johannesburg.

Risk Alert | How long will Cyril last?

26 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the declining political fortunes of President Cyril Ramaphosa. How long will he remain President, we ask?

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Meanwhile, South Africa has become a breeding ground for organised crime, we warn.

We conclude by examining the United Kingdom’s surprising change in economic policy under its new government.

Risk Alert | Eskom: a systemic risk

19 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the worsening crisis at Eskom and the systemic risk it poses to South Africa’s economy.

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We also analyse recent by-election results which show the ANC continuing to bleed support across the country.

We conclude by flagging the ongoing threat of the Expropriation Bill, which unexpectedly stalled in a parliamentary committee meeting last week.

Risk Alert | SA's shrinking economy

12 September 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the reasons why South Africa’s economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter of this year.

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The emigration of skilled young people will further weaken South Africa’s already fragile tax base, we warn.

Internationally, we discuss the potential failure of the United States to reach an agreement with Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons.