Risk Alert

Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | SA's red-hot inflation

29 August 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we examine the drivers of South Africa’s growing inflation problem.

Publication description

Could last week’s relatively small cost of living protests escalate in the near future, we ask?

We also explore how carbon taxes and uncertainties over the future supply of natural gas could further undermine South Africa’s industrial capacity.

Risk Alert | Trouble at Luthuli House

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss two recent polls which reveal a dramatic decline in popular support for the ruling ANC.

Publication description

How will the ANC government respond to its waning popularity, we ask?

We also explore the growing fragility of the Chinese economy, and the inherent risks for South Africa.

Risk Alert | The US & SA: it's complicated

15 August 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss the charm offensive by the United States towards South Africa, and the two countries’ complicated foreign policy relationship.

Publication description

Expropriation Without Compensation is firmly back on the ANC’s policy agenda, we warn.

We also unpack the risks to the domestic agricultural sector of China’s ban on South African wool exports.

Risk Alert | Economic turbulence ahead?

8 August 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we examine how local and international forces are impacting South Africa’s economy.

Publication description

As business conditions worsen and economic activity slows, will the Ramaphosa administration be able to move beyond ‘social compacting’ and introduce the reforms necessary to unlock growth?

We also explore whether higher interest rates in the developed world will trigger a global recession.

Risk Alert | South Africa’s Arab Spring?

1 August 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we reiterate that South Africa may see more protests and unrest, should the current economic climate prevail.

Publication description

Will the recently announced changes to the electricity market mean that there is hope yet, and what does this mean for wider reform prospects, we ask?

We also look at the revised global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and South Africa’s increasingly bleak prospects for economic recovery.

Risk Alert | Inflation driving protests

25 July 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we highlight the surprise move by the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its key interest rate by a greater-than-expected margin.

Publication description

Will the move by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to increase the repo rate succeed alone in reducing the upward pressure on prices, we ask?

We also look at how the cost-of-living crisis is weighing in as an electoral issue across the world, and what this means for South Africa at the next national poll.