Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The President goes a-wooing

28 November 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent state visit to the United Kingdom in search of funding commitments, even as the South African government continues to pursue anti-investment policies.

Publication description

The latest crime statistics point to an uptick in serious and violent crimes, while increasing public frustration could signal renewed unrest on the horizon.

We conclude by looking at the latest inflation and interest rate data from South Africa, as well as the socio-economic impact of China’s zero-Covid policy.

Risk Alert | ANC goes BIG

21 November 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore the potential risks emerging from last week’s meeting of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the African National Congress (ANC).

Publication description

We unpack the key policy resolutions from the NEC meeting, including the impending implementation of the National Health Insurance (NHI) scheme.

We conclude with an analysis of South Africa’s crumbling infrastructure and the risk it poses to the domestic economy.

Risk Alert | Coalition rollercoaster

14 November 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we explore what the surprise re-election of Tania Campbell as Mayor of Ekurhuleni says about the current state of South Africa’s coalition politics.

Publication description

A new report published by Eskom reveals that the power utility will struggle to meet demand for electricity for at least the next five years.

We conclude by looking at the United States, where the Republican party failed to achieve its much hoped-for ‘Red Wave’ in last week’s midterm elections, and where red-hot inflation appears to be cooling.

Risk Alert | A warning from the SARB

7 November 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we assess recent critical remarks from the leadership of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) about the poor state of the domestic economy.

Publication description

We explore how local businesses are responding to the low-growth environment and how interest rate hikes will affect the global economic outlook.

We conclude with an analysis of the recent election in Israel and the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister.

Risk Alert | Intriguing concessions in the MTBPS

In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we unpack last week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), where the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, revealed some surprising concessions.

Publication description

Do these concessions represent a change in policy direction or a temporary tactical retreat, we ask?

We conclude by examining what a terrorism alert by the United States Embassy in Pretoria reveals about South Africa’s vulnerability to such attacks.

Risk Alert | The listless Presidency

24 October 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss Cyril Ramaphosa’s listless Presidency.

Publication description

Could Mr. Ramaphosa already be a ‘lame duck’ President, we ask?

We also look at domestic inflation, as well as the growing prevalence of organised criminal syndicates in the construction sector.

We conclude by examining whether the Bank of Japan will be able to maintain its yield curve control policy in the context of rising global interest rates.