Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | The dangers of a new state of disaster

6 February 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look into the risks of a ‘state of disaster’ in response to South Africa’s electricity crisis, as contemplated by the African National Congress (ANC).

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We also examine the broader policy implications of the increasing ‘toenadering’ between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters; and the impact of failing transport infrastructure on South Africa’s economic growth prospects.

We close with a comment on the risk of foreign-denominated debt, notably the potential burden on the South African taxpayer.

Risk Alert | ANC support cratering?

30 January 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we unpack new reports of voter polling, as well as the renewed coalition government turmoil in Johannesburg.

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We also look at the implications of the latest interest rate hike by the South African Reserve Bank.

In closing, we highlight the impact of failing infrastructure on South Africa’s export capabilities, and that of loadshedding on food prices.

Risk Alert | Blackouts: the risks less apparent

16 January 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we examine the impact of continued loadshedding on food inflation and food insecurity in South Africa.

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We also examine the impact of entrenched ‘mafias’ in the country’s mining and construction sectors, as well as prospects for global growth over the short-to-medium term.

We close with a comment on inflation figures from the United States (U.S.) and what the phenomenon of ‘zombie companies’ can mean for the U.S. economy.

Risk Alert | The ANC conference unpacked

9 January 2023 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert of 2023, we unpack the results of the elective conference of the African National Congress (ANC) held in December, expressing our scepticism over any sea-change in terms of policy.

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We also examine the policy implications of the ANC's January 8th statement, delivered on the occasion of the 111th anniversary of the party's founding.

We close with a comment on André de Ruyter’s departure from Eskom, before looking at the implications of declining inflation in the Eurozone.

Risk Alert | SA economy recovering?

12 December 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we discuss some surprisingly positive third-quarter GDP numbers, as South Africa grapples with the dire state of Eskom and electricity supply.

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The elective conference of the African National Congress (ANC) brings heightened uncertainty for President Cyril Ramaphosa, amid constitutional and legal issues relating to Phala Phala.

We close with a comment on what the state of South Africa’s ambulance services tells us about the mooted National Health Insurance.

Risk Alert | President faces Phala Phala music

5 December 2022 - In this week's exclusive client Risk Alert, we look at the problems facing President Cyril Ramaphosa, who finds himself in a spot of bother over the Phala Phala incident.

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Economic reforms come under the spotlight, as we highlight the unsuccessful attempt by Transnet to bring private participants into the freight rail sector.

We conclude with some good news on job creation in South Africa, and an assessment of what yield curve inversions in the United States and in global bond markets mean for economic growth worldwide.