Risk Alert

The Risk Alert is a weekly two-page analysis of emerging political and economic risks. It provides guidance on how topical events, both locally and globally, will influence South Africa’s business and investment environment. The Risk Alert, presented in both PDF and audio formats, is published every Monday morning, — helping CRA clients to begin each week armed with the latest analysis of key events.

Risk Alert | Corroded steel

13 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we look at the causes and consequences of the closure of ArcelorMittal’s long steel plants.

Publication description

We assess President Cyril Ramaphosa’s January 8th statement on the anniversary of the ANC’s founding in 1912.

We follow with an outlook on the US and SA economies and judge the implications for the Rand.

We then close with an update on the situation in Mozambique.

Risk Alert | The world braces for Trump 2.0

6 January 2025 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with the incoming Trump administration and geopolitical considerations for South Africa.

Publication description

We examine the ANC’s prospects in the context of underperforming municipalities. The state of Transnet, the binding constraint on economic growth, follows.

We then unpack the immediate regional risks South Africa will face in 2025, and close with a look at China’s flagging growth prospects.

Risk Alert | Will the GNU stand the test?

16 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we provide an outlook on what to expect from 2025.

Publication description

We look at the prospects for the Government of National Unity and assess the options for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters.

We close with a review of the 2024 elections in Africa.

Risk Alert | The sugar high runs out

9 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with disappointing third quarter GDP data and the GNU’s great growth challenge.

Publication description

President Ramaphosa ‘deals’ with a compromised cabinet minister as only he can. We then unpack the results of the Namibian elections.

We close with political upheaval in South Korea.

Risk Alert | A new kind of minister

2 December 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with a dispute between the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Competition Tribunal.

Publication description

We provide an update on Johannesburg’s water situation before turning to the weaknesses identified in South Africa’s public procurement system.

We close with a look at United States president-elect Donald Trump’s statements about tariffs and BRICS.

Risk Alert | A view from the US

25 November 2024 - In this week’s Risk Alert, we begin with insights from CRA director John Endres — currently in the United States — into the incoming Trump administration.

Publication description

Next are South Africa’s G20 chairmanship challenges and opportunities. We then unpack developments behind the scenes at the State Security Agency.

We close with an analysis of inflation data and the South African Reserve Bank’s latest rate cut, along with rising business confidence hobbled by governance shortcomings in Gauteng.