Macro Review

Macro Review

The Macro Review is a monthly report providing insight into the current trends shaping a specific social, environmental, economic, or political risk in South Africa. This report unpacks the numbers to indicate how political risks are evolving, and the way in which this may impact the business environment and social stability in South Africa.

A State of Corruption

This month’s edition entitled A State of Corruption, explores South Africa's endemic corruption problem. The report draws on data sets from all spheres of government to reveal the prevalence of patronage and rent-seeking that exists within the state. Will President Ramaphosa be able to root out corruption given the widespread allegations of graft within the senior ranks of the ANC and his insistence on preserving unity within the party?

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • A mere 8% of South Africa’s municipalities had an unqualified (clean) audit in the 2018/19 financial year.
  • Unauthorised expenditure is higher at local government level than at the national level.
  • Irregular expenditure is higher at the national level than at local government level.
  • Fruitless and wasteful expenditure is also higher at the national level than at local government level.
  • Together, unauthorised/irregular/fruitless and wasteful expenditure at local and national government levels accounts for about 10% of the government’s procurement budget and 57% of the police and defence budget.

The Invisibles: South Africa’s Underclass

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • The underclass forms the majority of South Africa’s population.
  • Eight million people aged 15 to 34 are not in employment, education or training.
  • Even with a relatively low monthly value, social grants are not sustainable in the long term.
  • Out of some 17 million households, 2.2 million live in informal dwellings, 2.6 million have no electricity and 1.8 million have no access to piped water.
  • Because of deteriorating living conditions, mass action remains a threat in South Africa.

The South African Consumer Under Lockdown

This month’s edition, entitled The South African Consumer Under Lockdown, presents data on the effect of the extended national lockdown on consumer trends in the economy. The report reveals that rising unemployment and slow economic activity have taken their toll, resulting in increased indebtedness and reduced discretionary spending.

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • Consumer expenditure is a key driver of South Arica’s economy.
  • Consumer confidence dropped to a record low in June 2020.
  • South Africans are highly indebted and struggling to service their debt.
  • Credit granted has dipped since February, a reflection of the diminished ability to borrow and heightened consumer cautiousness.
  • Online purchases have surged since the beginning of the national lockdown.

Running Out of Road: Beyond the Supplementary Budget

This month’s edition, entitled Running Out of Road, analyzes the key policy risks and macroeonomic trends emerging from the supplementary budget, including debt, deficits and growth projections.

Publication description

Premium subscribers are encouraged to schedule an online briefing with the CRA team to discuss the latest policy developments and attendant risks.

South Africa Unlocked

This month’s edition, entitled South Africa Unlocked, highlights the devastating impact of the lockdown on the South African economy and the urgent need for re-opening.

Publication description

Premium subscribers are encouraged to schedule an online briefing with the CRA team to discuss the latest policy developments and attendant risks.

Fallout: Covid-19 and the economy

This month’s edition of the Macro Review explores the economic consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic in South Africa and the world.

Publication description

The report provides the latest data on economic growth estimates, trade and investment volumes, as well as an analysis of the fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis.