Macro Review

The Macro Review is a monthly report providing insight into the current trends shaping a specific social, environmental, economic, or political risk in South Africa. This report unpacks the numbers to indicate how political risks are evolving, and the way in which this may impact the business environment and social stability in South Africa.

All Politics is Local

The latest edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis examines the state of local government in South Africa.

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The report provides a comprehensive analysis of:

Municipal electoral performance
Municipal financial performance
Public perceptions and actions

Criminal State

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Key takeaways:

The true extent of crime in South Africa is possibly concealed by underreporting.
Short-term trends indicate an uptick in violent crime.
The extended Covid-19 lockdown has contributed to an escalation of violent protests.
The police continue to be plagued by corruption, criminality, and limited resources.
As public confidence wanes, South Africans are resorting to private security and vigilantism.

Business Unusual

The June edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis explores South Africa's hostile business environment.

Publication description

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of:

Changes in business conditions across various industries
Business and consumer confidence
Energy supply constraints
The labour market

Profiling South Africa’s provinces

This edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis provides comparative data on South Africa’s nine provinces across key areas: demographics, the economy, education, health, social security, living conditions, as well as crime and security.

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The long Lockdown and the South African consumer

This edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled The long Lockdown and the South African consumer, revisits the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, first explored in July 2020.

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Key takeaways:

Household consumption expenditure, at 59.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), is a key driver of South Africa’s economy.
Consumer confidence recovered slightly in the first quarter of 2021 but remains very low.
Debt levels are rising, with households increasingly struggling to meet their debt obligations.
Household spending has diminished, as seen in poor retail and new vehicle sales.
Online activity remains strong, despite the easing of lockdown restrictions.

The Education Illusion

The latest report from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled The Education Illusion looks at South Africa’s broader education system and provides an assessment of quality and output over time.

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Key takeaways:

Basic education expenditure accounts for 70% of all education spending.
Only half of grade 1s make it to grade 12 in the minimum time.
Only a third of schools have a computer facility, merely a quarter have a library, and just a fifth have a laboratory.
Pupils in Quintile 1 schools (the poorest) are six times more likely to fail maths than those in Quintile 5 (the most well-off).
University enrolment increased by 88.7% between 1995 and 2018.
Rates of completion are lowest for doctoral qualifications, at 13.5%.