2021

The State of South Africa

The latest edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis provides an overview of South Africa today.

Publication description

The report includes data and analysis of:

  • The economy and government finances
  • The labour market
  • Living conditions and health
  • Education levels
  • Safety and security
  • Public perceptions

A new era in South African politics

The latest edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis looks at South Africa’s new political alignment in the aftermath of the 2021 municipal elections.

Publication description

The report includes data and analysis of:

  • Voter turnout and the rise of the non-voter
  • The decline of ANC dominance
  • Election results by metropolitan municipality
  • The realignment of South African politics

ANC on a knife-edge

The latest edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis provides new polling data on voter preferences ahead of South Africa's local government elections.

Publication description

The report includes a comprehensive analysis of:

  • Voting intentions
  • Public support for political leaders
  • Voter attitudes towards corruption
  • The CRA's call on the election

All Politics is Local

The latest edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis examines the state of local government in South Africa.

Publication description

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of:

  • Municipal electoral performance
  • Municipal financial performance
  • Public perceptions and actions

Criminal State

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • The true extent of crime in South Africa is possibly concealed by underreporting.
  • Short-term trends indicate an uptick in violent crime.
  • The extended Covid-19 lockdown has contributed to an escalation of violent protests.
  • The police continue to be plagued by corruption, criminality, and limited resources.
  • As public confidence wanes, South Africans are resorting to private security and vigilantism.

Business Unusual

The June edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis explores South Africa's hostile business environment.

Publication description

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of:

  • Changes in business conditions across various industries
  • Business and consumer confidence 
  • Energy supply constraints
  • The labour market

Profiling South Africa’s provinces

This edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis provides comparative data on South Africa’s nine provinces across key areas: demographics, the economy, education, health, social security, living conditions, as well as crime and security.

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The long Lockdown and the South African consumer

This edition of the Macro Review from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled The long Lockdown and the South African consumer, revisits the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on consumer behaviour, first explored in July 2020.

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • Household consumption expenditure, at 59.9% of the gross domestic product (GDP), is a key driver of South Africa’s economy.
  • Consumer confidence recovered slightly in the first quarter of 2021 but remains very low.
  • Debt levels are rising, with households increasingly struggling to meet their debt obligations.
  • Household spending has diminished, as seen in poor retail and new vehicle sales.
  • Online activity remains strong, despite the easing of lockdown restrictions.

The Education Illusion

The latest report from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled The Education Illusion​ looks at South Africa’s broader education system and provides an assessment of quality and output over time.

Publication description

Key takeaways:

  • Basic education expenditure accounts for 70% of all education spending.
  • Only half of grade 1s make it to grade 12 in the minimum time.
  • Only a third of schools have a computer facility, merely a quarter have a library, and just a fifth have a laboratory.
  • Pupils in Quintile 1 schools (the poorest) are six times more likely to fail maths than those in Quintile 5 (the most well-off).
  • University enrolment increased by 88.7% between 1995 and 2018.
  • Rates of completion are lowest for doctoral qualifications, at 13.5%.

The 2021 Budget: Living on borrowed time

The latest report from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled ​Living On Borrowed Time assesses the macroeconomic trends and key policy risks emerging from the National Budget.

Publication description

In this month’s edition we unpack Finance Minister Tito Mboweni’s 2021 National Budget and identify the risk of South Africa’s deteriorating fiscal position.  

Key takeaways:

  • The government expects economic growth of 3.3% for 2021, stabilising at 1.6% by 2023.
  • It expects to collect revenue of R1.52 trillion, or 28.4% of GDP in 2021/22.
  • Expenditure is expected to reach R2.02 trillion in 2021/22.
  • The government therefore expects a main budget balance of -R482.6 billion in 2021/22 or -9% of GDP.
  • The consolidated budget balance is -R500 billion or -9.3% of GDP.
  • The government expects a debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.9% in 2021/22, rising to 87.3% by 2023/24.
  • Debt service costs amount to R269.7 billion (17.7% of revenue and 13.3% of expenditure).
  • The budget deficit amounts to R1.4 billion being borrowed every day for the year 2021.

South Africa’s Quality of Life

The latest report from the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), entitled South Africa’s Quality of Life assesses living standards across SA's nine provinces as well as its four main racial 'groups'.

Publication description

The report identifies social and economic indicators where the country underperforms and what must be done to improve the lives of all South Africans.  

Key takeaways:

  • The Quality of Life (QOLI) Index draws comparisons between South Africa’s nine provinces and between the different race groups.
  • Ten indicators are used to calculate the QOLI Index scores.
  • The best quality of life is in the Western Cape province, with a QOLI score of 6.5.
  • The worst quality of life is in the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga provinces, each with a QOLI score of 5.0.
  • White South Africans have the best quality of life, followed by Indian/ Asian, Coloured and Black people respectively.