News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] Protecting Property Rights Key to Economic Recovery

South Africa’s intention to expropriate private property without compensation will have damaging effects on the already ailing economy.

[Opinion] Save Stats SA

The slow crippling of Stats SA through budget cuts and understaffing constitutes more than a threat to one institution. It stands to pull the rug out from under SA’s ability to formulate effective policy

[Opinion] Falling consumption spells disaster for economy

Consumers in South Africa are under enormous pressure and anyone who is concerned about the economy should pay close attention to consumer behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic.

[Audio] Stats SA weakened and incapacitated due to lack of funding

Gerbrandt Van Heerden, research analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), spoke to Power FM's Thabiso Kotane about how cuts in government funding are threatening Stats SA’s ability to fulfil its core mandate − to produce key statistics that are vital to understanding the nature of South African society.

[Video] Webinar | PANDA | Centre For Risk Analysis - Thursday 23 July 2020

In this CRA webinar, Nick Hudson, co-founder of Pandemics ~ Data and Analytics (PANDA) assesses the human and economic cost of an extended lockdown. PANDA is a multidisciplinary group seeking to inform an appropriate policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic in South Africa.

[Opinion] Stats SA's poverty survey is Covid-19's latest victim - and we can't afford to lose it

Much has been said these past few months about 'essential' services. Some activities have to happen for the basics of life to proceed. This idea has been central to the conversation around the immediate goal of restricting the spread of the Covid-19 virus; but it is a useful guide to so much more.

[Opinion] Will fiscal pressure breed reform?

In his supplementary budget on 24 June, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni painted a dire picture of South Africa’s public finances in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis and the government-imposed lockdown.

[Opinion] Beyond the supplementary budget: how the South African government will respond to its worsening economic and fiscal position

Frans Cronje and David Ansara discuss how SA govt will respond to its worsening economic and fiscal position.

[Opinion] Open the economy, but lock down the schools

If you want a petri dish and distribution network to accelerate the Covid-19 pandemic through South Africa’s towns and cities, then schools are it, writes Frans Cronje.

[Audio] The ideological basis of SA’s COV19 lockdown - ETM Macro Podcast with Dr Frans Cronje

Dr Frans Cronje, Director of the Centre For Risk Analysis, speaks to Russell Lamberti of ETM Macro Advisors about the Covid-19 crisis in South Africa and the economic impact of the lockdown.

[Video] Economic consequences of the lockdown in South Africa

David Ansara of the CRA discusses the South African government's national lockdown strategy and the problems associated with it, including the artificial distinction between "essential" and "non-essential" services.

CRA services to continue under Coronavirus contingency plan

Following the announcement by President Ramaphosa last night, Sunday 15 March, a national state of disaster has been declared in South Africa to mitigate the risks of the global Coronavirus pandemic.

[News] Tito’s budget should keep Moody’s off our backs – post-Budget reaction

For the first time in five years, government gave some relief to over-stretched South African taxpayers.

[Opinion] Taxman at your door

David Ansara writes if necessary policies aren’t implemented, taxpayers will continue to pay for government’s profligacy.

[Opinion] Pompeo on land reform: Is SA's trade relationship with the US under threat?

United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s criticism of the South African government's proposed policy of Expropriation without Compensation suggests that the US-SA commercial and diplomatic relationship could be under significant strain.

[Audio] Land expropriation without compensation would be disastrous for the South African economy - Pompeo

The United States Secretary of State's remarks that land expropriation without compensation would be disastrous for the South African economy are just the latest comments from the US Government casting aspersions on the process.

[News] Weak economic growth exacerbating unemployment: Experts

South Africa's unemployment rate remains unchanged at 29.1%.

[News] SA will be hard to sell in Davos for Mboweni

Economists are sceptical that Finance Minister Tito Mboweni and Team SA delegation will succeed in inspiring investor appetite in the South African economy at the 50th World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos this week.

[News] SARB cuts Repo rate

SARB cuts the Repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% in Q1 2020, following a unanimous vote by the SARB MPC.

[News] SA economy ‘not in the doldrums, but the nasties’ - economists

We’d be lucky to see 0.9% growth, which is the World Bank’s expectation, and could already be in a depression rather than a recession, one expert said.

[Opinion] Open for business? How SMMEs in South Africa can thrive

Small, medium, and micro enterprises (SMMEs) have the potential to drive economic growth and employment in South Africa. However, this potential is not being realised.

[News] Eastern Cape SA’s most unequal province

White South Africans are getting paid three times more than their black African counterparts at work.

[Video] Economists warn of investment downgrades

Some economists have warned that unless South Africa puts its economic house in order soon, it faces the possibility of an investment downgrade.

[News] Ramaphosa’s Challenge May Be Bigger Than That Faced by Mandela

When Nelson Mandela came to power in 1994, he faced the challenge of uniting a nation divided by apartheid and healing an economy shattered by sanctions and mismanagement.

[Audio] Productivity levels at all-time low in the workplace

18 Oct 2019 - David Ansara, COO of the Centre For Risk Analysis, joined Aldrin Sampear of Power FM and Dr Leroy Repatsoae, Chief Economist at Productivity SA, to discuss productivity levels in the SA workplace.

[News] Key factors driving unemployment discussed

He listed and deeply analysed the following issues: low economic growth; hostile broader economic policy framework; poor education; low skill level, and labour policy as key drivers of unemployment.

[News] South Africa’s Youth Are Deserting the Party of Nelson Mandela

Twenty-five years after the African National Congress ended apartheid, it faces being brought down by an increasingly young and urbanized electorate.

[Opinion] SA's unemployment crisis - it's a policy problem first and foremost

South Africa is in the grip of an unemployment crisis. The latest unemployment figures from Statistics South Africa show that the official unemployment rate has increased to 29% in 2Q 2019 (a QOQ rise of 1.4% from 27.6% in 1Q 2019).

[News] Ramaphosa’s Dependence on the Left Stymies South African Reforms

“The wrestling match over the ANC tiller is now essentially between a hard-left faction and aggressive racial nationalist faction all under the supervision of a captain who cannot break the deadlock or inspire a third way,” the Johannesburg-based Centre for Risk Analysis said in a report it gives to clients. Ramaphosa “believes, fatally in our view, that maintaining unity among the crew is a priority,” it said.

[Opinion] Brexit scenarios: Events, dear boy, events

CRA Analyst, Hermann Pretorius, shares his thoughts on six scenarios for Brexit under new PM, Boris Johnson. This analysis was adapted from the CRA’s Strategic Intelligence Report which details trends and potential scenarios for the domestic and international political economy. This and other reports are available exclusively to CRA subscribers.