News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[News] South Africa Seen Risking More Frequent Unrest Without Reforms

Data shows there is a strong correlation between economic growth and social stability, and rioting and looting could become more prevalent in the next few years unless the authorities are serious about implementing reforms.

[Audio] State of Emergency for SA? (SAfm)

Acting Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni says a total of 5000 members of the SANDF and other law enforcement agencies will be deployed in different provinces across the country. David Ansara, Chief Operating Officer at the Centre For Risk Analysis shares the risks of the current violent and politically charged environment and the trends likely to come...

[News] #SAShutdown triggered by #ZumaArrest but not the reason

The #ShutdownSA protests sparked by the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma are ongoing. Minister of police, Bheki Cele assured South Africans the protest action will be contained. President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed the South African Defence Force (SADF)’s deployment to hot spots in Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng. The Daily Vox spoke to analysts who weighed in on questions around the current protests.

[Opinion] Violent anarchy: just what we’ve been warning SA to expect - Frans Cronje

‘Very high levels of economic exclusion, failing schools, unchecked corruption, racial nationalist rhetoric from the government, inept and poorly motivated security forces led by people who do not know what they are doing, and government policy that is unable to address any of these problems and more often than not exacerbates them…’.

[Audio] Examining the cause of public violence in South Africa.

13 July 2021 - Khaya Sithole from Power FM is in conversation with Gerbrandt van Heerden, research analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA) about the contributing factors to public violence in South Africa.

[Opinion] Tourism sector counting on faster vaccine roll-out

South Africa’s slow vaccination rate risks permanently damaging one of the country’s few thriving economic sectors – the tourism industry.

[Opinion] Class inequality a growing concern in SA

There is growing evidence that the biggest issue facing South Africa is not racial inequality, but rather class and geographical inequality.

[Opinion] Budget bottom line: SA is living on borrowed time

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni and the government he serves are increasingly living on borrowed time. In the absence of growth-enhancing policy reforms and fiscal prudence, South Africa remains vulnerable to an external shock.

[Opinion] SA has more to worry about than Covid-19

The majority of South Africans are more concerned about unemployment and corruption than the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Audio] Differences in quality of life between rural and urban provinces

How do differences in the quality of life between urban and rural provinces affect migration, elections and independent movements in South Africa? Gerbrandt Van Heerden, research analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), speaks with Sara Gon on Chai FM’s IRR podcast series about the quality of life in South Africa and the implications of major inequalities between urban and rural provinces.

[Opinion] Lack of medical cover a significant financial risk.

The majority of South Africans are living without medical aid, posing significant personal financial risks.

[Video] South Africa Economic Outlook 2021

As 2020 draws to a close, what are the prospects for economic recovery in the year ahead? Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the domestic and global trends that will define South Africa's economic performance in 2021 and beyond.

[Video] Risks And Opportunity In Africa

The CRA's David Ansara and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the key risks and opportunities on the African continent.

[Opinion] Households owe SA municipalities over R100 billion

Households owe municipalities billions of Rands in unpaid municipal bills, posing a threat to the continuation of basic service delivery.

[Opinion] Unrealistic approach to investment conference

Expectations abound within the government (and apparently among observers too) that this week’s investment conference will help to attract the flow of capital without which SA’s future cannot be assured. Is this realistic?

[Opinion] Major declines for all income groups during lockdown

Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown have severely impacted every income group in South Africa, with not even the richest cohort being spared the effects of shutting down the country.

[Opinion] SA needs more jobs - not social grant beneficiaries

Rather than creating wealth, South Africa has been stuck for the past decade in redistributing existing wealth.

[Opinion] New Expropriation Bill a sign that the ANC’s days are numbered

With the government budget deficit expected to pass 40% this year, the African National Congress’s (ANC) options to source the coal needed to fuel its gravy train are dwindling. There should be little doubt that the new expropriation law is intended to make up for this insufficiency.

[Video] Are fears of a “second wave” of the Covid-19 pandemic justified?

While known cases have risen in Europe and North America, there has not been a corresponding increase in deaths. Why not? The CRA team and guest speaker, Ian McGorian, big data analyst and member of Pandemics Data & Analysis (PANDA), discuss the validity of the “second wave” thesis.

[Video] South Africa has run out of money

South Africa has run out of money and the only way to resolve this problem is to cut back on state spending, which is politically very difficult to do.

[Video] Locked out: the risk of unemployment

Over 2 million jobs have been lost due to the economic Lockdown imposed by the ANC government. South Africa's structural unemployment problem is steadily worsening.

[Opinion] Privatisation necessary to save SAA

Operations and jobs will remain at risk if state-owned South African Airways (SAA) is not privatised.

[Opinion] Life expectancy in SA likely to fall as living standards deteriorate

There is a risk that South Africa’s life expectancy which is the average period that a person may expect to live, may fall from the current levels which are comparable to those of emerging markets.

[Opinion] South Africa’s departing elites: a critical warning sign

The past decade has seen a rapid decline in the number of dollar millionaires living in South Africa.

[Video] The Risk of NHI

The National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill will have far-reaching consequences for healthcare funding in South Africa. In this CRA webinar, Mike Settas − Managing Director of Cinagi, a private health insurance provider − discusses the risks associated with the NHI proposal and prospects for its implementation.

[Video] Can the ANC solve its corruption dilemma?

President Cyril Ramaphosa has vowed to tackle corruption in the African National Congress (ANC). But does he have the political will and the strength to do so? The President faces a deep dilemma: he must be seen to act, but attempting to defeat corruption could risk tearing the ANC apart. Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the ANC's corruption dilemma and various scenarios for the party.

[Opinion] NHI could trigger skills exit

The proposed National Health Insurance (NHI) is likely to see a skills exodus from the health sector.

[Opinion] Business closures herald a looming disaster

Company liquidations and employee retrenchments are a stark reminder of the extensive and continuing impact on economic activity of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant lockdown.

[Opinion] The Invisibles: South Africa’s growing underclass

Poor people with little education and no work, and who generally live under difficult conditions, find themselves relying on state support, while being unable to occupy centre stage in public discourse. They are the underclass — often neglected and ‘invisible’ — yet increasingly, they are becoming a potential source of unrest.

[Opinion] SA’s middle class taking strain

Key indicators reveal the impact of South Africa’s economic crisis on the middle class.