News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] Sweeping school drop-out rates under the rug

Although the matric results of 2021 show that the overwhelming majority of learners have passed, the figures conceal a low pupil retention rate.

[News] Newly-matriculated class face employment woes for the year ahead

Economist, and senior analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, Bheki Mahlobo, said that unfortunately the country's educational system did not properly equip many young South Africans with the skills needed to be absorbed in the labour market.

[Opinion] Risks – and opportunities – for SA in 2022

22 January 2022 - What does 2022 hold for South Africa? We continue to consider the country to be in an exceptionally fragile state both politically and economically.

[Opinion] Education in South Africa: No bang for our buck

16 January 2022 - “When it comes to questions around SA’s education system, it is not a matter of availability of money and how much is spent. Rather, it is about the management and proper allocation of available resources.”

[Opinion] ANC’s hegemony is over: a new era has begun

Coalition politics are set to become the norm and the share of the vote of the African National Congress (ANC) in the 2024 national and provincial elections will remain below 50%.

[Opinion] Numsa strike unjustified as rise in steel price will hit manufacturers

Not all enterprises are able to pass the increases on to consumers.

[Opinion] Upcoming local elections and democracy in South Africa

17 September 2021 - The long list of problems in South Africa, including poverty, corruption and inequality, may hold the voters back from participating in the upcoming elections.

[Audio] Why there is no necessary reform

David Ansara, Chief Operating Officer of the CRA, was interviewed by Sara Gon on Chai FM about the reasons for the lack of policy reform in South Africa.

[Podcast] Risk and having a Plan B

My guest, David Ansara from the "Solutions with David Ansara" podcast, is the Chief Operating Office of the Centre for Risk Analysis.

[News] ‘Pink Vote’ an untapped market for SA political parties

“Gerbrandt van Heerden, the author of The SA Pink Vote report, said if political parties continued to ignore the LGBTQ voting bloc during elections, they risked missing out on an active, dynamic and electorally valuable market.”

[Opinion] The Economics Underpinning South Africa’s Riots

It has been labelled as South Africa’s worst episode of civil unrest since the days of apartheid. The rioting that occurred following the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma for contempt of court on July 7—specifically, for failing to show up for an official inquiry into his alleged corruption during his nine-year presidency—has been among the darkest chapters in the country’s recent history.

[Opinion] Foreign workers contribute to South Africa’s economy

Beyond the most recent attacks on South African trucks in the violence and looting along key routes between KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng is a longer story of an industry embattled by criminality, and of a transport sector that has long been prone to xenophobic violence.

[News] South Africa Seen Risking More Frequent Unrest Without Reforms

Data shows there is a strong correlation between economic growth and social stability, and rioting and looting could become more prevalent in the next few years unless the authorities are serious about implementing reforms.

[Audio] State of Emergency for SA? (SAfm)

Acting Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni says a total of 5000 members of the SANDF and other law enforcement agencies will be deployed in different provinces across the country. David Ansara, Chief Operating Officer at the Centre For Risk Analysis shares the risks of the current violent and politically charged environment and the trends likely to come...

[News] #SAShutdown triggered by #ZumaArrest but not the reason

The #ShutdownSA protests sparked by the imprisonment of former president Jacob Zuma are ongoing. Minister of police, Bheki Cele assured South Africans the protest action will be contained. President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed the South African Defence Force (SADF)’s deployment to hot spots in Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng. The Daily Vox spoke to analysts who weighed in on questions around the current protests.

[Opinion] Violent anarchy: just what we’ve been warning SA to expect - Frans Cronje

‘Very high levels of economic exclusion, failing schools, unchecked corruption, racial nationalist rhetoric from the government, inept and poorly motivated security forces led by people who do not know what they are doing, and government policy that is unable to address any of these problems and more often than not exacerbates them…’.

[Audio] Examining the cause of public violence in South Africa.

13 July 2021 - Khaya Sithole from Power FM is in conversation with Gerbrandt van Heerden, research analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA) about the contributing factors to public violence in South Africa.

[Opinion] Tourism sector counting on faster vaccine roll-out

South Africa’s slow vaccination rate risks permanently damaging one of the country’s few thriving economic sectors – the tourism industry.

[Opinion] Class inequality a growing concern in SA

There is growing evidence that the biggest issue facing South Africa is not racial inequality, but rather class and geographical inequality.

[Opinion] Budget bottom line: SA is living on borrowed time

Finance Minister Tito Mboweni and the government he serves are increasingly living on borrowed time. In the absence of growth-enhancing policy reforms and fiscal prudence, South Africa remains vulnerable to an external shock.

[Opinion] SA has more to worry about than Covid-19

The majority of South Africans are more concerned about unemployment and corruption than the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Audio] Differences in quality of life between rural and urban provinces

How do differences in the quality of life between urban and rural provinces affect migration, elections and independent movements in South Africa? Gerbrandt Van Heerden, research analyst at the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), speaks with Sara Gon on Chai FM’s IRR podcast series about the quality of life in South Africa and the implications of major inequalities between urban and rural provinces.

[Opinion] Lack of medical cover a significant financial risk.

The majority of South Africans are living without medical aid, posing significant personal financial risks.

[Video] South Africa Economic Outlook 2021

As 2020 draws to a close, what are the prospects for economic recovery in the year ahead? Frans Cronje and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the domestic and global trends that will define South Africa's economic performance in 2021 and beyond.

[Video] Risks And Opportunity In Africa

The CRA's David Ansara and Bheki Mahlobo discuss the key risks and opportunities on the African continent.

[Opinion] Households owe SA municipalities over R100 billion

Households owe municipalities billions of Rands in unpaid municipal bills, posing a threat to the continuation of basic service delivery.

[Opinion] Unrealistic approach to investment conference

Expectations abound within the government (and apparently among observers too) that this week’s investment conference will help to attract the flow of capital without which SA’s future cannot be assured. Is this realistic?

[Opinion] Major declines for all income groups during lockdown

Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown have severely impacted every income group in South Africa, with not even the richest cohort being spared the effects of shutting down the country.

[Opinion] SA needs more jobs - not social grant beneficiaries

Rather than creating wealth, South Africa has been stuck for the past decade in redistributing existing wealth.

[Opinion] New Expropriation Bill a sign that the ANC’s days are numbered

With the government budget deficit expected to pass 40% this year, the African National Congress’s (ANC) options to source the coal needed to fuel its gravy train are dwindling. There should be little doubt that the new expropriation law is intended to make up for this insufficiency.