News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] SA outlook: citizens are resilient in the face of crisis

Although it’s a constitutional responsibility of the state to ensure that the country is secure, the paradoxical reality of South African citizens staying on while things fall apart is to make sure that they are “state secure”, says Chris Hattingh from the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA).

[Opinion] Expanding’ SARB’s mandate won’t cure SA’s woes

But despite these utterances and desires, it is unclear how precisely expanding the central bank’s mandate – to, for example, dictate looser monetary policy and lower interest rates (in a higher inflation context) – will cure the myriad ideological and policy wounds the governing party has inflicted on the economy.

[Opinion] 2023-Quo Vadis?

All in all a dynamic environment for the foreseeable future but with adversity comes opportunity and taking on these challenges is part of South Africa’s DNA, especially if businesses, communities, and civil society organisations can work together.

[Letter] This is why SA is a risk for Sub-Saharan Africa

That SA is one of the countries cited as a potential drag on the Sub-Saharan African region’s growth prospects for 2023 stands to reason given the ideological and policy constraints imposed on the country’s potential by the government.

[Letter] Transnet: no surprise there were so few takers

Little chance of a decent return if private companies get only two years to operate on SOE-controlled lines.

[Opinion] No end to rolling blackouts anytime soon

It is also vital to bear in mind that Eskom’s problems effectively act as a hard cap on South Africa’s growth potential.

[Letter] Grandiose shipping project a waste of resources

Private sector investment, not a national shipping company, will solve the problems of dysfunctional rail network.

[Video] Global Economy | US economy could be headed for recession

The US economy is headed for a recession in 2023. It could even be in a recession already. The US Federal Reserve has consistently hiked interest rates this year to control inflation. Senior Policy Analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis, Chris Hattingh speaks to eNCA.

[Opinion] Flattering legislation highly deceptive

There might well be surface-level overtures that cadre deployment will be changed. But at base, the party’s guiding ideology requires precisely such tools. It would no longer be the ANC if it abandoned cadre deployment at the first opportunity.

[Letter] Expanding Bank’s mandate will not address jobless problem

The governor was correct in highlighting that, in the context of inefficiencies and constraints that undermine and inhibit job creation, ‘pushing harder on monetary policy is like pushing the accelerator to the floor on a curvy, icy road over a mountain pass’.

[Opinion] Pyrrhic victory for the DA: A leaf out of their book for the ANC

The precedent says: accept court decisions when they favour us, snub them when they don’t.

[Letter] Masondo’s concerns on unlocking private sector role in rail should be heeded

Private investors are being asked to sink billions into locomotives, network maintenance and infrastructure upgrades, but Transnet has the ultimate say.

[Opinion] Headwinds on the horizon

Mining and agriculture have been two of the few bright lights for the South African economy, but with the possibility of declining or at least somewhat lower commodity demand and prices, the country cannot hedge all its future growth on these areas.

[Video] Transnet strike | Parastatal's struggles

The ongoing strike at Transnet has only exacerbated its problems. Poor planning, state capture and corruption had brought Transnet to its knees.

[Video] Transnet strike may have a lasting impact

The 12-day strike by some 40,000 Transnet workers may have a lasting and undesirable impact on the country's ports. Most such facilities functioned at between 12 and 30% of daily capacity, with the mining sector losing around R1-billion a day.

[Letter] African countries are not getting the basics of reliable trade infrastructure right

Growth prospects have deteriorated across the continent, including for SA.

[Opinion] South Africa's welfare dilemma

Despite South Africans’ high dependency on the welfare system, the government seems unable or unwilling to turn the situation around. It now is considering making the temporary, special Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant more permanent.

[Letter] Eskom board does not have full freedom

Patronage networks will not surrender their access to resources without a long, costly fight.

[Opinion] Lessons from Kganyago

“On this point, Kganyago said: “Trying to deal with social needs simply through more spending, more debt and higher tax doesn’t really cure the patient, but rather limits the pain while accepting continued decline.“

[Opinion] State capture likely to happen again

In early September Chief Justice Raymond Zondo delivered the keynote address at an event organised by News24. In speaking on the topic of state capture, and whether he thinks something similar could happen again in the future, the Chief Justice indicated that he thought there was a high likelihood the ANC would once again fail to use its majority in parliament to deal with it.

[Letter] Leaving SA is becoming ever more appealing

The rest better start state-proofing their communities and businesses.

[Opinion] Economic freedom in our lifetime?

Wishing differently doesn’t change reality; all the pronouncements of the state cannot just force wealth creation into being. With less economic freedom comes more dependence on the state – a necessary feature, not an accident, of the ideology that is the National Democratic Revolution (NDR).

[Letter] Difficult regulations stymie growth

With a small economy such as ours, regulations and policies that make it more difficult for skilled foreign workers and businesses to invest time and capital here, represent a serious risk to future economic growth.

Onteiening van eiendom sonder vergoeding

Die Instituut vir Rasseverhoudings sê Suid-Afrikaners het net meer as 'n maand oor om 'n beroep op parlementslede te doen vir die verwerping van die Wetsontwerp op Onteiening.

[Press Release] South Africa’s dysfunctional municipalities – why the decay?

The latest Macro Review, a report published by the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), details the current state of South Africa’s municipalities. It finds that most of South Africa’s municipalities are in serious financial trouble. They also lack the capacity to adequately deliver services, feeding into increased protest action, and negatively impacting investment and economic growth.

[Letter] Dire ANC policies and excesses may well worsen

The ANC may begrudgingly take on reforms but these will be cosmetic at best and will not change the fundamental relationship between party and state

[News] ANC moet gaan, of munisipaliteite gaan knak

Indien die ekonomiese en basiese dienslewering daarmee saam gaan verbeter, sal die ANC op nasionale en plaaslike vlak die trekpas gegee moet word.

[Opinion] The end of social compacts?

This inevitably means that, when a party such as the ANC is in charge of state organs and tools, the default will be toward policies that increase centralisation, taxation, and power maximisation – all of which have wrought havoc on the economy, with a record-high unemployment rate and lower foreign direct investment flows as the prime examples.

[Letter] SA is not getting the basics of reliable trade infrastructure right

This means the country's fiscus will be more fragile in future.

[News] Stop trying to make the NHI happen - fix what we've got: expert

South African think tank, the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) hosted a discussion this week about the viability of the government’s National Health Insurance scheme, which it says is moving full steam ahead, despite concerns raised by stakeholders in the private and public healthcare space.