News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] Headwinds on the horizon

Mining and agriculture have been two of the few bright lights for the South African economy, but with the possibility of declining or at least somewhat lower commodity demand and prices, the country cannot hedge all its future growth on these areas.

[Video] Transnet strike | Parastatal's struggles

The ongoing strike at Transnet has only exacerbated its problems. Poor planning, state capture and corruption had brought Transnet to its knees.

[Video] Transnet strike may have a lasting impact

The 12-day strike by some 40,000 Transnet workers may have a lasting and undesirable impact on the country's ports. Most such facilities functioned at between 12 and 30% of daily capacity, with the mining sector losing around R1-billion a day.

[Letter] African countries are not getting the basics of reliable trade infrastructure right

Growth prospects have deteriorated across the continent, including for SA.

[Opinion] South Africa's welfare dilemma

Despite South Africans’ high dependency on the welfare system, the government seems unable or unwilling to turn the situation around. It now is considering making the temporary, special Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant more permanent.

[Letter] Eskom board does not have full freedom

Patronage networks will not surrender their access to resources without a long, costly fight.

[Opinion] Lessons from Kganyago

“On this point, Kganyago said: “Trying to deal with social needs simply through more spending, more debt and higher tax doesn’t really cure the patient, but rather limits the pain while accepting continued decline.“

[Opinion] State capture likely to happen again

In early September Chief Justice Raymond Zondo delivered the keynote address at an event organised by News24. In speaking on the topic of state capture, and whether he thinks something similar could happen again in the future, the Chief Justice indicated that he thought there was a high likelihood the ANC would once again fail to use its majority in parliament to deal with it.

[Letter] Leaving SA is becoming ever more appealing

The rest better start state-proofing their communities and businesses.

[Opinion] Economic freedom in our lifetime?

Wishing differently doesn’t change reality; all the pronouncements of the state cannot just force wealth creation into being. With less economic freedom comes more dependence on the state – a necessary feature, not an accident, of the ideology that is the National Democratic Revolution (NDR).

[Letter] Difficult regulations stymie growth

With a small economy such as ours, regulations and policies that make it more difficult for skilled foreign workers and businesses to invest time and capital here, represent a serious risk to future economic growth.

Onteiening van eiendom sonder vergoeding

Die Instituut vir Rasseverhoudings sê Suid-Afrikaners het net meer as 'n maand oor om 'n beroep op parlementslede te doen vir die verwerping van die Wetsontwerp op Onteiening.

[Press Release] South Africa’s dysfunctional municipalities – why the decay?

The latest Macro Review, a report published by the Centre For Risk Analysis (CRA), details the current state of South Africa’s municipalities. It finds that most of South Africa’s municipalities are in serious financial trouble. They also lack the capacity to adequately deliver services, feeding into increased protest action, and negatively impacting investment and economic growth.

[Letter] Dire ANC policies and excesses may well worsen

The ANC may begrudgingly take on reforms but these will be cosmetic at best and will not change the fundamental relationship between party and state

[News] ANC moet gaan, of munisipaliteite gaan knak

Indien die ekonomiese en basiese dienslewering daarmee saam gaan verbeter, sal die ANC op nasionale en plaaslike vlak die trekpas gegee moet word.

[Opinion] The end of social compacts?

This inevitably means that, when a party such as the ANC is in charge of state organs and tools, the default will be toward policies that increase centralisation, taxation, and power maximisation – all of which have wrought havoc on the economy, with a record-high unemployment rate and lower foreign direct investment flows as the prime examples.

[Letter] SA is not getting the basics of reliable trade infrastructure right

This means the country's fiscus will be more fragile in future.

[News] Stop trying to make the NHI happen - fix what we've got: expert

South African think tank, the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) hosted a discussion this week about the viability of the government’s National Health Insurance scheme, which it says is moving full steam ahead, despite concerns raised by stakeholders in the private and public healthcare space.

[Opinion] Redistributionism or Growth?

Basic Income Grant (BIG) – added to the increasing number of other forms of welfare – represents a major risk to South Africa’s fiscal responsibility and growth prospects.

[Letter] Nationalising the Sarb won’t solve unemployment, energy insecurity

Simply discussing the possibility of nationalisation sends a signal to SA and international companies and investors that the institution may lose all credibility

[Opinion] Heightened risk of social unrest in second half of 2022

In the context of rising food and fuel prices, an official unemployment rate of 34%, and growth-depressing factors such as blockades of the N3 and persistent rolling blackouts, South Africa faces the prospect of more social unrest and instability over coming months.

[Letter] Wiser to ignore government

Inflation is likely to remain high given that there is little prospect that substantive structural reforms in both the policy and administered price areas will be implemented any time soon (“SA consumers at ‘tipping point’ as food inflation soars, says NielsenIQ”, July 27).

[Opinion] Businesses will not tolerate municipal decay forever

How can businesses assist in South Africa’s economic recovery when a growing number of the country’s municipalities are unable to perform their most basic functions?

[Letter] State capture a feature of ANC ideology

There may be overtures to accountability and structural reforms, but for as long as the ANC adheres to the requirements and edicts of the NDR the incentives and pressures for corruption will persist.

[Opinion] Lower growth on the horizon

Within the context of a tightening global business environment, foreign investment in countries such as South Africa may decline, or head towards more friendly climates. Higher interest rates also mean tighter credit, and so businesses that want to expand may be faced with higher risk and credit costs.

[Letter] Incrementally or not, NHI is misguided

Monopolising the management of healthcare — even if it is done only incrementally over a long period — will add yet more layers of bureaucracy and control over doctors and nurses, and concentrate resources in the hands of the state. In so doing it will add incentives for cronyism and corruption.

[Audio] The state of the nation and policy reform – ChaiFM

[News] Transnet falls short as opportunity knocks

Considering the consistently below-average performance of the country’s ports, it comes as no surprise that the Port of Maputo is emerging as an alternative to its nearest South African competitors, a point confirmed by Chris Hattingh, senior policy analyst at the Centre for Risk Analysis.

[Video] Conditions at local ports costing Transnet and the economy

The Centre for Risk Analysis says conditions at local ports are costing Transnet and the economy billions, due to years of neglect.

[Opinion] SA decline on Human Development Index continues

Despite South Africa’s continuous improvement in its Human Development Index value for nearly three decades, the country’s overall rank has been declining over the past three years.