News — Centre for Risk Analysis

[Opinion] SA’s Goldilocks moment?

While stating the global economy is at a “critical juncture,” in its latest World Economic Outlook the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its global GDP outlook for this year from the 3.3% projected in January to 2.8%. For South Africa, the IMF downgrades the 1.5% January forecast to 1% now; more realistic than the 1.9% projected by National Treasury in the March Budget.

[Letter] Cash injections won’t save Transnet

Kabelo Khumalo’s article refers (“Rail company boss hails fast-tracking of state reforms”, March 28). I share Traxtion CEO James Holley’s assessment that “it’s hard to exaggerate what a game-changer moment it would be if the SA government is successful in implementing those three projects [in the request for information]”.

[Opinion] A view from Washington, DC

While walking from one briefing to the next in Washington, DC, last week, I received a notification from South Africa’s favourite app. EskomSePush told me loadshedding stage 2 had been implemented.

[News] South Africa’s geopolitical dance

The repeated injections of geopolitical, trade, and investment uncertainty delivered by the second Trump administration have hit various governments, not least of which US allies, hard.

[Opinion] SA policy status quo harming black people the most

After 30 years of democracy, the vast majority of black South Africans continue to languish in poverty at much higher rates than other racial groups.

[Letter] Taxpayers under pressure

The National Treasury estimates that 235,542 taxpayers contribute 33.1% of total individual income tax. Of 7,888,615 individual taxpayers, 569,351 contribute 49.1% of all personal income tax (2023/24 financial year).

[Opinion] AGOA, going, gone

In a 13 February executive order (EO), ‘Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs’,US president Donald Trump puts forth a wide-ranging review and proposed change to how the US administers tariffs – and how the US administration views global trade as well as bodies such as the World Trade Organisation.

[Letter] State’s mixed messages

Government targets private capital, but introduces laws that make SA a riskier place to invest

[News] South Africa’s G20 Presidency: What it means for global trade and investment

SOUTH AFRICA’s G20 Presidency provides the host country with numerous diplomatic, economic, and cultural opportunities. With a main summit (22-23 November in Johannesburg) preceded by numerous side conferences and engagements focused on a range of areas and sectors, South Africa’s G20 Presidency offers multiple chances to make a positive impact on international diplomatic and business counterparts.

[Letter] Double whammy could cause steel shortages

While it remains uncertain whether ArcelorMittal SA (Amsa) will receive a R1bn bailout, the domestic steel industry faces mounting challenges. If Amsa shuts down permanently it is unlikely that Transnet Port Terminals (TPT) can compensate for the loss of locally produced long steel with an immediate increase in break-bulk steel imports.

[Letter] Bailout won’t fix Transnet

Another proposed bailout for Transnet is unlikely to fix its fundamental operational and management problems, and will undermine hard-won government fiscal credibility.

[Letter] Expropriation Act could be a killer blow

Dilution of property rights amounts to a spectacular own goal

[Opinion] CHRIS HATTINGH: Donald Trump’s early signals for US-SA trade

In addition to the new trade review instructions implemented by Trump, the bipartisan US-SA Bilateral Review Act could be revived

[Opinion] South Africa’s trade growth opportunity

With load-shedding seemingly a thing of the very recent past (load-limiting remains in place, and load-shedding could return when Eskom takes more of the coal fleet offline for maintenance), the major binding constraint on South Africa’s growth potential is the consistently awful performance of the country’s ports and railways.

[Opinion] The Transnet imperative

Of all the vertically and horizontally integrated freight and ports companies that have existed in the world, Transnet is the last remaining of its kind. While there have been talks and nominal moves towards breaking up at least parts of Transnet’s various operations and introducing private sector investment and competition, these have not yet been made a reality.

[Opinion] Not in SA’s favour to pull up the drawbridge

Should US president-elect Donald Trump’s new administration succeed in implementing a raft of higher tariffs on imports, and generally place the US on a more protectionist trade and economic footing, developing economies such as SA will need to weather higher prices, more restricted and hobbled global trade flows, and the effects of a stronger dollar.

[Opinion] Why Kganyago’s stingy rate cut was exactly right

The Reserve Bank barely moved last week, cutting interest rates by just 25 basis points. Analysts have rounded on governor Lesetja Kganyago for being too coy – but it was exactly the tonic.

[Audio] SWAPO faces it's toughest test as Namibia heads for crucial elections

Voters in Namibia will go to the polls on WEDNESDAY (27 November) to choose their next president and parliamentary representatives. The elections come after President Hage Geingob died in February and was replaced on a interim basis by his deputy, Nangolo Mbumba. The election could mark a historic shift in the country's political landscape if the ruling SWAPO party, in power since independence in 1990, loses control of the presidency or parliament for the first time. The president is directly elected by voters and needs to garner more than 50% of votes to win. Support for SWAPO dropped from 87% in the presidential election in 2014 to 56% in 2019.To look at these crucial elections Bongiwe Zwane spoke to Carika Middelberg, an analyst from the Centre for Risk Analysis

[Letter] GNU central to ANC leadership

The ANC will hold its next leadership conference in 2027, when delegates will deliberate on who to elect to the top positions and the party’s national executive committee (NEC).

[Opinion] Transnet is the economy’s binding constraint

Despite improved electricity stability post-elections in 2024, CHRIS HATTINGH says South Africa’s economic growth remains constrained by inefficient Transnet-run ports and rail infrastructure needing urgent reform.

[Opinion] What the 2024 MTBPS reveals about the GNU’s fiscal trajectory

The recently presented 2024 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana paints a sobering picture of South Africa’s fiscal outlook.

[Opinion] SA not (yet) playing its G20 hand well

When South Africa assumes the presidency of the G20 on 1 December, it gains a position that will afford the country, and the Government of National Unity (GNU), numerous economic, investment, trade, diplomatic, and strategic opportunities.

[Letter] Tough calls ahead

The formation of the government of national unity (GNU) has afforded SA a few months of positive market sentiment, a stronger rand and more positive interest in investment opportunities from international investors.

[Letter] Motor industry needs more than subsidies

Reform of network industries is required for manufacturers to truly benefit from government support

[Letter] Infrastructure investment lags population growth

One of the great challenges facing the government of national unity (GNU) is the declining quality of infrastructure. Finding new sources of funding for investments in, as well as maintenance and building of, infrastructure should be one of government’s top priorities.

[Letter] GNU’s survival despite areas of contention indicates strength

But some issues, such as National Health Insurance, could cause bigger ructions and possibly hard splits

[Opinion] South Africa’s demographic opportunity a key driver to unlocking population potential

South Africa’s young, growing population presents a substantive opportunity for the country’s future; a skilled workforce, a growing middle class with aspirations, and an expectation for satisfactory government and private sector services and offerings.

[Opinion] The GNU at 100

Taking the date on which President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his latest cabinet – 30 June 2024 – 8 October marks 100 days of the Government of National Unity (GNU).

[Opinion] Don’t allow it to be just a sugar high

On 31 August Springboks (and a few All Blacks) fans took newly cleaned PRASA trains from Park Station to Ellis Park stadium (now Emirates Airline Park). The preceding Sunday, Minister of Transport Barbara Creecy also took the trip, as part of an initiative to increase awareness of the work being done by PRASA to get its train fleet back up and running. Positive stories of the experience filled social media; the home team rewarded those fans who attended with a 31-27 victory.

[Opinion] Can South Africa seize its construction opportunity?

Both President Cyril Ramaphosa and Public Works and Infrastructure Minister Dean Macpherson have expressed their desire to ‘turn South Africa into a construction site.’ To unlock the level of GDP growth rate the country needs – between 4% – 6% per annum – one of the economic sectors to get right is that of construction.